Best NBA Player Prop Picks (Friday, Oct. 26): Best Bet in Kings-Jazz
Photo credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert
- Saturday's nine-game NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Magic G Terrance Ross, Knicks C Mitchell Robinson, Pelicans PG Lonzo Ball, and Jazz C Rudy Gobert
The NBA season is off and running, and prop betting season is officially open for business.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props focus on four of the slate’s nine games:
- Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
- New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets : 8 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
Lets dive in.
Magic SG Terrence Ross
THE PICK: Under 14.5 points (-115)
Ross is coming off a career-high 15.0 points per game last season, but he might not get a chance to build upon that in 2019-20. He was limited to just 19.5 minutes in his last game and tallied just 10 points. He’s still going to be a high-usage player when he’s on the court — he currently leads the team with a usage rate of 32.8% — but even high-usage players struggle to get buckets when they’re on the bench.
The Magic have some other guys on their bench who are going to cut into Ross’ minutes this season, particularly Markelle Fultz. I would play the under up to -130.
Knicks C Mitchell Robinson
THE PICK: Under 7.5 rebounds (-125)
Robinson is an extremely talented young big man, but he finds himself in a crowded Knicks’ frontcourt. They signed what seemed like 100 big men in the offseason, including Julius Randle, Taj Gibson, and Bobby Portis. Last year’s lottery pick Kevin Knox will also figure into the rotation.
Add it all up, and Robinson was limited to just 16.6 minutes in his first game this season. It’s possible that number could increase as the year progresses, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen on the second leg of a back-to-back. Robinson is also coming off an ankle injury that caused him to miss the first game of the season, so the Knicks will likely exercise caution with him.
I don’t see myself betting on a ton of Robinson unders this season, but I think there’s some value in doing so tonight. I wouldn’t play it at higher than -135, though.
Pelicans PG Lonzo Ball
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (-159) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This prop has been juiced up quite a bit, but frankly it seems like free money. Lonzo is one of the best distributors in the league, and he’s going to have the ball in his hands more than usual with Jrue Holiday out of the lineup.
He’s currently projected for 32.3 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, and Lonzo has averaged 7.1 assists per 36 minutes throughout his career. That number might not jump off the page, but he has spent time sharing the ball with other elite distributors like Rajon Rondo and LeBron James. That won’t be an issue today.
This game vs. the Rockets also figures to be one of the best of the day from a scoring perspective. The total currently sits at 237.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate.
Lonzo has the potential to pile up stats today as long as the Pelicans can keep this game competitive. I would play the over on his assist prop up to -185.
Jazz C Rudy Gobert
THE PICK: Over 13.5 rebounds (+115) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This is a pretty huge number for a rebounding prop, but I think there are reasons to consider the over. For starters, Gobert figures to be one of the best rebounders in the league this season.
His rebound rate of 21.9% ranked fourth in the league last season, despite the fact that he played a bunch of minutes alongside another traditional big man in Derrick Favors. Favors is now gone, and the Jazz are choosing to go with a more modern power forward like Joe Ingles or Jeff Green in his stead. That should be a positive for Gobert on the glass.
The Kings also represent a wonderful matchup. They played fast last season and ranked just 24th in team rebound rate, and two of their best rebounders from last year will not be on the floor tonight (Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley).
Gobert averaged 14.0 rebounds per game in four matchups vs. the Kings last season, so I’m willing to roll the dice at anything better than even money.