Moore’s Saturday Angles: Keep Fading the Heat

Feb 29, 2020, 06:25 PM EST

The Heat (-7.5) are a generous favorite against the Nets on Saturday night in Miami. Matt Moore thinks that the line might be a little too juicy for a Miami team that's been inconsistent of late.
Moore also has an angle on Magic-Spurs (-4) as Orlando travels west to San Antonio.
See Moore's full betting analysis below.

Here are some betting angles for Saturday’s NBA games based on matchups and trends.

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Nets at Heat

Spread: Heat -7.5
Over/Under: 218
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

ANGLE: Keep Fading the Heat

Since I wrote this article, the Heat are 6-9 against the spread. The slippage is real. They’re 6-5 as a favorite, which is to be noted. But Miami is a 7.5-point favorite here, and that line is too high.

It should also be noted the Nets are 6-11 ATS as a road dog, and Miami is 17-7 at home as a favorite. The trends, they are not with me.

But Brooklyn has the eighth-best ATS +/- vs. top-ten offensive teams, while Miami is only +0.3 vs. top 10 defensive teams — Brooklyn is ninth this season in defensive efficiency and flying way under the radar.

The Nets are the eighth-best team this season defending spot-up attempts, and that’s Miami’s main area of offensive strength.

So the formula is a bad Nets offense gets a boost against a waning Heat defense and the fiery Heat offense underperforms against a surprisingly good defense. I think the Nets hang.

THE PLAY: Nets +7.5

Magic at Spurs

Spread: Spurs -4
Over/Under: 222
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

ANGLE: This ain’t the Spurs spot.

Just some general trends, here:

The Spurs are third-worst in the league as a home favorite, 4-13 ATS.
Against teams on a back to back, the Spurs are 2-3 straight-up, with the worst ATS plus-minus in the league, a shocking -11.
Since LaMarcus Aldridge joined San Antonio, the Magic are 5-4 ATS vs. the Spurs as an underdog.

You have a bad offense in Orlando vs. a bad defense in San Antonio. I like the matchup there. The Spurs and Magic have had similar strengths of schedules, and similar performances relative to those strengths of schedule. The Spurs are 17th in net rating, the Magic are 18th.

This line is just a little too high. I don’t mind the Spurs favored by 1.5-2.5, but higher than that and I like Orlando based on the value. I also don’t hate them on the ML here if you’re looking for a live dog. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when favored.

THE PLAY: Magic +4, Magic ML

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