Wiseguys kicked off the post-Christmas break in Green Dot City, cashing two of their three Wednesday plays. Today, we're looking at a light slate across the board, with three bowl games, five NBA games and no college hoops until tomorrow.
After consulting the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified two NBA games that pros are betting on Thursday night: Los Angeles Lakers-Sacramento Kings (10 p.m. ET) and Philadelphia 76ers-Utah Jazz (10:30 p.m. ET).
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (229.5 to 231)
Wiseguys cashed their Kings over last night and they're going back to the well tonight.
This total opened at 229.5. The public typically loves betting overs, but they're somewhat scared off by the high number and the fact that Los Angeles will be without its offensive star and MVP, LeBron James (groin).
But sharps aren't worried.
The over is getting only 58% of bets, yet it has risen from 229.5 to 231. In a vacuum, a total might see a juice adjustment or a small move based on 58% of bets, but not 1.5 points.
What caused this movement? Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a big steam move on the Over 230. This influx of smart money pushed the total up to 231.
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz
10:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (217.5 to 219.5)
It's a misconception that sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are never on the same side. It may not happen often, but it does take place from time to time.
This total is a perfect example.
Currently, 57% of bets are taking the over, signaling moderate public support. However, the over is also receiving a whopping 81% of dollars, evidence of heavy, respected wagers banking on a high-scoring game.
As a result of this smart money discrepancy, this Over matches the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Tickets vs. Money NBA Overs (54.9%, +31.86 units, 7% return on investment since 2016).
As soon as the total opened, wiseguys immediately hammered the Over 217.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. Later this morning, pros tripled down on the Over 218.5.
The fact that the line got worse and sharps kept hitting it indicates supreme wiseguy confidence.
