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Finding value in the NBA totals market is all about identifying pace, defensive coverages, and regression spots. I've looked at the numbers for tonight's slate and narrowed it down to my favorite over/under spots on the board.
Let's get into my NBA total predictions and over/under picks for Friday, October 23.
NBA Total Predictions for Friday, October 23
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Timberwolves vs Magic Over/Under Pick
Minnesota's new backcourt pairing of LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards put on a show in its season opener.
The Timberwolves racked up a league-high 132 points in a blowout win over a Heat team that featured Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the frontcourt. Their run-and-gun playing style could struggle on some nights, but the team's three-point volume could make it lethal on offense throughout the 2026-27 campaign.
Minnesota heaved up 50 shots from beyond the arc on Wednesday and converted those attempts at a 42.0% clip. Ball and Edwards combined for 20 of those looks. They're sure to be just as aggressive against a team without two All-NBA defenders.
The biggest knocks against Orlando have been health and outside shooting in recent years. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are injury-free so far, and their presence will provide more spacing for the likes of Desmond Bane.
The Magic have been a bottom-10 team in three-point attempts per game in three of their last four seasons, but put up 40 long-distance shots in their season opener against the Hawks en route to 125 points. There's room for growth there, given that they only made 32.5% of those looks.
There will be no shortage of possessions in this contest. The season is young, but both sides boast top-six scoring offenses and are making a concerted effort to stretch the floor with outside shooting. Orlando's roster construction is more ideal for keeping up with Minnesota's rapid pace.
Pick: Over 234.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)
Hawks vs Hornets Over/Under Pick
The Hawks rattled off 132 points in a win over the Magic's stout defense in their first game of the season. Now they'll attempt to improve to 2-0 on the year against the Hornets in a divisional matchup.
Atlanta is picking up right where it left off last year. The Hawks posted the league's best offensive rating in the back half of the 2025-26 season after shipping off Trae Young to the Wizards in exchange for CJ McCollum.
McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and others are flourishing with Jalen Johnson operating as the team's new offensive hub. The team's core has had more time to mesh over the course of the offseason, and there's still plenty of room for improvement.
Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Onyeka Okongwu combined to go 0-for-10 from deep on Wednesday. That trio can be more efficient in its second outing of the year. In fact, Charlotte's playing style will likely welcome the outside shooting.
The Hornets haven't abandoned the long ball after trading their star point guard. They chucked up 48 triples in their upset win over the Nets. Only the Timberwolves have topped that mark so far this year.
Coby White and Kon Knueppel are out of commission, but Charlotte added other snipers like Grayson Allen to progress toward being an elite shooting team.
Atlanta will have plenty of opportunities to tee off on a team with less impressive defensive personnel. The Hawks should be salivating and making the most of their highly efficient offense.
Pick: Hawks Team Total Over 114.5 Points (-106, FanDuel)
