We have another excellent NBA slate in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions and expert bets for Friday, October 23.
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NBA Expert Bets for Friday, October 23
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Bulls vs. Bucks
Under 239.5
This is a Bulls-centric cap. The Bucks scored pretty well against the Wizards and defended poorly. Their pace was moderate.
Chicago is the interesting side here. There are three things to figure out about their opening-night evisceration by the Raptors.
Was that more about how good the Raptors are than how bad the Bulls are?
If the Bulls’ defense isn’t actually as bad as it looked, which was the worst in the league among all teams in their first games, then it’s possible-to-likely they defend well enough to force an under.
If the Bulls’ offense was as bad as it looked, then this probably goes under because they can’t even score on Milwaukee enough.
The outcome where the over hits is that the Bulls’ offense is better than it looked vs. Toronto (a top-end defense, so that’s likely) and their defense is just as bad.
Chicago shot 11% from 3-point range, of course they’ll score better. But they also missed tons of shots at the rim and played at the fastest pace in the league.
I make this line 231, still a high-scoring affair, but enough to bring it to the under.
This could be an up-and-down track meet, but the Bulls have athleticism and size defensively, while the Bucks have smarts and control.
Chicago had the No. 1 turnover rate in the league on Wednesday, which then caused them to try and run back to score because teams get stuck in that loop.
With a normal turnover rate or even just a lower one, their pace slows somewhat. I can’t buy either of these offenses at this number.
Pick: Under 239.5
Game to Go to Overtime (+1300)
I bet overtimes if the line is within a possession and I project it as such on power rating.
I bet Hawks–Magic and we missed despite it being a one-possession game with a minute to go. That’s how it goes.
But I make this one Bulls -0.6. So, I’ll put a small amount on overtime.
Pick: Under 239.5
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Knicks vs. Celtics
Celtics -2.5
That’s right, I’m picking the Knicks to go 0-2.
The Knicks just don’t seem right. This isn’t just about blowing banner night. It’s preseason. It’s the vibes. It’s the disconnect. It’s the sluggishness.
Meanwhile, the Celtics have to be livid about letting that Pistons game get away.
Boston matches up well with New York thanks to its switchable defense, excellent offensive rebounding, low foul rate, and high three-point rate.
This version of Boston, with more athletes in the frontcourt, will be harder for the Knicks to beat with physicality.
I make this line Celtics -3.6, which is enough for me to bet the Cs to beat the spread and the Knicks with it.
Pick: Celtics -2.5
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Timberwolves vs. Magic
Jaden McDaniels Over 15.5 Points
When I went back and watched the Timberwolves' offense today, the biggest thing that stood out to me is that there is nothing super complicated about it, which is actually a really good thing when you have a talented roster getting used to playing with each other.
If you have their high-level athleticism, skill, and floor spacing, you can just naturally manipulate the court with basic but effective ball movement.
But the primary action they are doing a lot right now is having Jaden McDaniels set a screen at half-court for LaMelo Ball, and then immediately slip it. It is very hard for opposing wings to be able to manage that specific switching dynamic.
If Franz Wagner guards him—which I think he will for stretches, even though Franz looked horrible and physically unwell in the opener—or even if it's Tristan da Silva, Orlando just doesn't have a lot of good defensive options to counter what Jaden brings to the table.
McDaniels is very confident right now catching that ball out of the short roll, manipulating into space, and hitting those short jumpers. He can also pump fake from the corner, drive inside, and hit the spot-up three.
I think this Minnesota offense is going to be pretty high-powered, at least for a while, and Jaden McDaniels is going to be a much bigger part of it than people realize.
There is going to be so much defensive attention focused on Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball that opposing teams will likely neglect what McDaniels is bringing to the table as a scorer.
McDaniels was dynamite in the preseason, he's going to get a massive share of high-quality opportunities in this specific action. I'll back him to clear 15.5 points against the Magic.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 15.5 Points
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Hawks vs. Hornets
Hornets +2.5
Atlanta’s win over the Magic was an exciting one, going down to the wire against a divisional opponent. Now they’re on the road again for another one.
The Hornets had a routine win over the Nets to open the season but I liked the way they played.
Atlanta’s defense gave up a lot of holes to Orlando but their offense saved the day.
The challenge with the Hornets is how they win the math game by taking threes and preventing yours, and then their ability to crash the glass with their myriad bigs. They have so many good frontcourt players, and Atlanta has a bit of a size problem down low.
I make the Hornets just one-point 'dogs in this matchup and I think Charlotte continues to surprise people who wrote them off when LaMelo Ball was traded.
Pick: Hornets +2.5
Naz Reid Over 3.5 Assists
Reid had seven assists in the Nets game and operated as the lead ball-handler (?!) a fair amount of the time.
Reid was the centerpiece of the LaMelo Ball trade for Charlotte. GM Jeff Peterson loves him and coach Charles Lee knows inventive ways to get him involved.
This line might be wildly off what his season average winds up being, especially with their injury issues.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 3.5 Assists
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Raptors vs. Wizards
Under 236.5
The Raptors’ defense is elite, the Wizards offense is pretty meh considering their performance against the Bucks who led for most of that game.
Still, I don’t want to lay the points, but I will take the under.
This assumes Toronto keeps up a rapid pace that was built off Chicago’s turnover rate in the first game, and the Wizards to keep cranking out buckets when they’re not facing a soft Bucks perimeter.
Toronto slows it down, the Wizards defend more than they did in that opener, and the game hits a crawl. This is a good spot for alt unders.
Pick: Under 236.5
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Pistons vs. Heat
Pistons Moneyline
I make the Pistons favorites here. Miami was embarrassed in what was supposed to be the glorious opening of the Giannis era. But Miami’s problems weren’t just that Anthony Edwards was a flamethrower.
Miami played a ton of drop coverage, which was baffling. You have Bam and Giannis, why not play aggressive and switch every screen?
You do that because you’re concerned that your guys will get tired playing at the outrageous pace they are playing at — and you don’t want to play a tiring, physical style against the Pistons.
Detroit continues to be underrated despite winning 60 games last season. They have the muscle on the inside to combat the Heat’s size, and they are athletic enough to handle Miami’s breakneck pace, to the point of diminishing returns.
Miami has too much to figure out and too weak a bench to be favored.
Pick: Pistons Moneyline
Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
The Heat play at an absolutely dizzying pace. They are playing drop coverage which helps with containing threes, but they still gave up a ton to the Wolves.
Joe is a knockdown shooter who pairs well with Cade Cunningham, and I continue to think he’ll get minutes and shots to get over this line.
I like this prop until it moves to 2.5.
Pick: Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 Three-Pointers
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Rockets vs. Spurs
Rockets +6.5
Houston’s going to be elite this season. The re-addition of Fred VanVleet unlocks everything for them. They’ve got internal growth from Jabari Smith Jr. and better shooting thanks to a new shooting coach. They are going to be voracious. I think they’re on the Spurs’ level.
This line assumes they are multiple-possession underdogs to San Antonio, and I just don’t agree.
Victor Wembanyama is probably not going to play as poorly as he did in the opener, but the Rockets do have the size to bump him around and bother him while making him cover ground.
The Spurs are still being graded off their win over the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals and not the complete view of a young and inexperienced team.
I think we'll see Houston steal this one to send the Spurs to 0-2 and force some tough questions.
Pick: Rockets +6.5
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Clippers vs. Lakers
Clippers +8.5 (Lean)
I’m not going to play it because I’m a coward, but this line feels wrong.
The Warriors, who I bet on the moneyline based on wanting to play the random variance with the Lakers’ new roster, were 5.5-point 'dogs to the Lakers in the opener.
Are the Clippers really three points worse than the Warriors? The answer can be “no, but the Lakers are three points better than they were priced at in the opener.” Except that means a three-point move off one game at home?
The Clippers have veteran players, a good coach, and a sense of pride.
The risk that the Lakers are just that much better is real. But I do think the Clippers are likely to fair better than the miserable Warriors — and at the very least, this line is incongruent with what we know.
Pick: Clippers +8.5
Brook Lopez Double-Double
Lopez had a double-double in the opener, and granted, he was playing the Kings, who I described as in hell in their game handicap. But Lopez played 27 minutes and has looked great in preseason.
The Lakers’ backup center options are Mamu and Kevon Looney in limited minutes, and Lopez can snag enough boards against them.
If Lopez plays a lot vs. Luka, that will be a problem.
But at +850, I want to ride the momentum that Lopez is riding. His over on points & rebounds is a fine play as well.
Pick: Brook Lopez Double-Double
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Trail Blazers vs. Kings
Trail Blazers -7.5
I do not think the market is capable of correctly pricing how bad the Kings are right now. They have to start from some sort of reasonable basement, when the reality is that the Kings dwell far below, in the subterranean depths of hell.
The Clippers are a deeply broken franchise and they absolutely smoked the Kings on opening night.
I make this line Blazers -8.6 and I’m pretty bearish on Portland, who annihilated the Suns in the opener. They certainly looked great.
So, the possibilities here are that the Blazers aren’t as good as that, which would mean they are still where I have them, or they are better and this number should be much higher.
I just think until the market is forced to make a drastic correction on how bad the Kings are, we want to continue to fade them against those ratings.
The market has to believe, early in the season, that they probably aren’t that bad, when in fact, they very much are.
Portland very likely rolls to a 2-0 start here.
Pick: Trail Blazers -7.5
Ja Morant Over 5.5 Assists
This is up one assist from his first game where he cleared this with ease.
On this team, it just makes sense to use Morant as a playmaker, getting downhill and dishing to others.
The Kings gave up the sixth-most assists of any team in the opener to a team that has a rookie at guard for a lot of the time.
I’ll play this one again until it reaches 6.5.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 5.5 Assists
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