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Welcome to Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide Playbook. For each game, we've built a solid base parlay to get us started, followed by a spicier, compounding angle using alternate lines for a deeper long-shot payout.
Tonight, I am looking at a pair of Western Conference rivalries featuring Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic. Coming off a few big winners on Wednesday (+300, +450, +1200 & +2500), let's get into my NBA parlay picks and SGP predictions for Friday, October 23.
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NBA Parlay Picks for Rockets vs Spurs
The Angle: Wemby Bounces Back While Spurs Figure Out Rotation
Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
Last season, Victor Wembanyama averaged 24.9 points per game, but he did not come close on opening night. Wembanyama shot 1-for-13 from the field and finished with just 12 points. Last season between the regular season and playoffs, he scored 12 or less in just five of 87 games.
The Spurs were facing a Thunder team they eliminated on their home floor in an intense seven-game series, and tempers flared again on Tuesday night. OKC spent all summer studying how to shut him down, and they were able to succeed. However, Wembanyama was very self-critical in his postgame press conference and said he was overthinking.
Maybe Wemby will do less thinking tonight, but a matchup against the Rockets may help. Typically, he does not explode against them too often. However, he did score 28 and 29 points against them in the final two meetings last season.
As competitive as the Spurs star is, he will want to make sure his team doesn't start 0-2. I would not be surprised if he went for 30 points tonight.
Pick: Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists
Perhaps another reason that Wembanyama did not get going on Tuesday is that Stephon Castle was not setting him up. Castle averaged 7.4 assists per game last year, but good lottery fortune also helped the Spurs land Dylan Harper in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Now, Wembanyama, Castle, Harper, and De'Aaron Fox are the Spurs' four best players, and all of them are starting.
Castle averaged one more assist than any other Spur last season, but on Tuesday night, he had just one on seven potential opportunities. Fox had seven assists while Harper had five. It was just one game in a new season and a tough matchup against the Thunder defense, but Castle's assists had begun to dwindle toward the end of last season as well.
Since the playoffs, Castle has had six or fewer assists in nine of his last 10 games. He did not surpass five assists in the NBA Finals. That was notable as Harper's minutes increased towards the end of the year.
Castle arrived in San Antonio first, but Harper is a more natural point guard. As the game slows down for him in his second year, Harper will likely take on more playmaking responsibilities. With Fox also around, it will be hard for Castle to consistently hit seven assists.
Pick: Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists
Dylan Harper 25+ Points, Rebounds, and Assists
As noted above, Harper had five assists in the season opener. He added 18 points and seven rebounds while playing 32 minutes. Harper only played 30 minutes six times all of last year, and four of those games were in the Finals.
If he plays 30 minutes consistently, Harper is a strong bet to increase his production from last year. At Rutgers, he averaged 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and four assists per game in his lone season. He had a 26.9% usage rate on Tuesday and accounted for 30 points, rebounds, and assists.
Harper has now had 25 PRA in six of his last eight games dating back to last season. He also had 27 PRA in his last game against Houston.
Pick: Dylan Harper 25+ Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+390)
- Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points
- Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists
- Dylan Harper 25+ Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Compounding Angle (+1300)
- Victor Wembanyama 30+ Points
- Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists
- Dylan Harper 30+ Points, Rebounds, and Assists
NBA Parlay Picks for Clippers vs Lakers
The Angle: Kessler/Doncic Connection Leads Lakers in Battle of LA
Walker Kessler Over 14.5 Points
The Lakers coveted Walker Kessler for years as they've looked for a long-term answer at center. So much so that even though Kessler was coming off shoulder surgery and played five games, they traded two future first-round picks to acquire him as a free agent. While his defensive presence is the primary reason the Lakers wanted him, his offense stole the show on Wednesday night.
In his Lakers debut, Kessler wasted no time clearing his 11.5-point line against the Warriors. He finished with 26 points and went 12-for-12 from the field, the most makes without a miss in a season opener and the third-most in Lakers history. Kessler will not be perfect every night, but the Warriors were a great matchup for him, and he has another great one tonight.
With Ivica Zubac in Indiana, the Clippers did not start a player over 6-foot-8 on Wednesday. While they were able to defeat the Kings, they allowed 48 points in the paint, and Domantas Sabonis had 14 points, 18 rebounds, and eight assists. Kessler should be in for another big night with Luka Doncic setting him up.
Pick: Walker Kessler Over 14.5 Points
Luka Doncic Over 7.5 Assists
Kessler had 10 dunks on Wednesday, the most by a Laker in a game since Shaquille O'Neal 23 years ago. Playing with a passer like Doncic made it an easy night for him, and they should form a great connection all year. Doncic assisted Kessler on his first two baskets of the game, and he had five assists to Kessler on the night.
Doncic finished with seven assists in 29 minutes as the Lakers built a 34-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. However, Doncic has averaged eight assists per game in six of his last seven seasons and 8.2 assists per game in his career.
Doncic had 8.3 assists per game in his first full season with the Lakers. That number matches his average against the Clippers over the past 15 matchups. He has cleared this line in 10 of those games and had 10 assists in six of them. I would not rule out another double-double tonight.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 7.5 Assists
Lakers -9.5
Wednesday was a great night for basketball in Los Angeles, as the Lakers and Clippers both secured blowout wins in their season openers.
However, oddsmakers are still not buying the Clippers as they are approaching being a double-digit underdog tonight. They are expected to finish at the bottom of the Western Conference without Kawhi Leonard this season. They got the benefit of facing another Western Conference bottom feeder when they met the Kings, with a rookie point guard in his NBA debut.
The Lakers have won six of the last 10 meetings in this crosstown rivalry. That includes a 135-118 victory at Crypto.com Arena last season. If the Lakers win by double digits tonight, I expect Doncic to lead the way.
While I like his assists tonight, he loves going off against the Clippers in general. Doncic averaged 31.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.5 assists against the Clippers last season. He has scored 30 points in four of six games as a Laker against the Clippers and averages 32.1 points against them for his career.
Defensively, the Lakers still have some questions to answer, but more games like Wednesday night certainly will improve their cause, as they held the Warriors to 41% from the field. Having Kessler defend the rim will certainly help.
Pick: Lakers -9.5
