We have an excellent 3-game slate on tap for opening day in the NBA, and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks and predictions for Friday, October 23.
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NBA Player Props for Friday, October 23
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Bulls vs. Bucks
Caleb Wilson Over 16.5 Points
By Joe Dellera
I'm targeting Caleb Wilson to go over 16.5 points, even though this line has taken some heavy steam from the opener of 14.5.
I understand the hesitation of wanting to see him shake off the nerves after a brutal shooting performance in Game 1, where he went 33 percent from the field and 13 percent from three, but the underlying usage is simply too massive to ignore.
Wilson had arguably the toughest defensive matchup possible against a stout Raptors team, yet the Bulls still let him shoot the ball 21 times in 32 minutes of action.
Chicago is fully committed to prioritizing his growth, meaning he is going to get every single opportunity to shoot through his mistakes.
Now, he transitions from a very tough matchup to potentially the absolute easiest matchup on the entire slate against the Bucks. He is going to be primarily guarded by Kyle Kuzma, and we all know exactly what Kuzma is defensively at this stage of his career — I actively want to play guys who are going up against him.
The Bucks' defense looked highly suspect against the Wizards, and they simply don't have the personnel to contain a high-volume shooter like Wilson right now.
This kid is not shy; he has zero reservations about getting his shots up. While a young player like him will naturally have high highs and low lows throughout an 82-game season, this specific spot screams high high.
The volume is locked in, the defensive resistance is plummeting, and I expect him to have his first truly great scoring night as a pro.
Pick: Caleb Wilson Over 16.5 Points
Hawks vs. Hornets
Naz Reid Over 3.5 Assists
By Matt Moore
Reid had seven assists in the Hornets' opener against the Nets and operated as the lead ball-handler (?!) a fair amount of the time.
He was the centerpiece of the LaMelo Ball trade for Charlotte — GM Jeff Peterson loves him and coach Charles Lee knows inventive ways to get him involved.
This line might be wildly off what his season average winds up being, especially with their injury issues.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 3.5 Assists
Pistons vs. Heat
Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 3PM
By Matt Moore
The Heat play at an absolutely dizzying pace — they are playing drop coverage, which helps with containing threes, but they still gave up a ton to the Wolves.
Joe is a knockdown shooter who pairs well with Cade Cunningham, and I continue to think he’ll get minutes and shots to get over this line.
I like his 3PM line until it moves to 2.5.
Pick: Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 3PM
Rockets vs. Spurs
Stephon Castle Under 6.5
By Alex Hinton
Perhaps another reason that Wembanyama did not get going on Tuesday is that Stephon Castle was not setting him up. Castle averaged 7.4 assists per game last year, but good lottery fortune also helped the Spurs land Dylan Harper in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Now, Wembanyama, Castle, Harper, and De'Aaron Fox are the Spurs' four best players, and all of them are starting.
Castle averaged one more assist than any other Spur last season, but on Tuesday night, he had just one on seven potential opportunities. Fox had seven assists while Harper had five. It was just one game in a new season and a tough matchup against the Thunder defense, but Castle's assists had begun to dwindle toward the end of last season as well.
Since the playoffs, Castle has had six or fewer assists in nine of his last 10 games. He did not surpass five assists in the NBA Finals. That was notable as Harper's minutes increased towards the end of the year.
Castle arrived in San Antonio first, but Harper is a more natural point guard. As the game slows down for him in his second year, Harper will likely take on more playmaking responsibilities. With Fox also around, it will be hard for Castle to consistently hit seven assists.
Pick: Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists
Clippers vs. Lakers
Luka Doncic Over 7.5 Assist
By Alex Hinton
Kessler had 10 dunks on Wednesday, which is the most by a Laker in one game since Shaquille O'Neal 23 years ago. Playing with like a passer like Doncic made it an easy night for him and they should form a great connection all year. Doncic assisted Kessler on his first two baskets, and he had five assists on the night.
Doncic finished with only seven assists. He only played 29 minutes as the Lakers took a 34-point lead to the fourth quarter. However, Luka has averaged eight assists per game in six of his last seven seasons. He is averaging 8.2 assists per game for his career.
Doncic averaged 8.3 assists per game in his first full season with the Lakers. That number matches his average against the Clippers over his last 15 games against them. He has cleared this line in 10 of those games and had 10 assists in six of them. I would not rule out another double-double tonight.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 7.5 Assists
Trail Blazers vs. Kings
Ja Morant Over 5.5 Assists
By Matt Moore
This is up one assist from his first game, where he cleared this with ease.
On this team, it just makes sense to use Morant as a playmaker, getting downhill and dishing to others.
The Kings gave up the sixth most assists of any team in the opener to a team that has a rookie at guard for a lot of the time.
I’ll play this one again until it reaches 6.5.
Pick: Ja Morant Over 5.5 Assists
