Betting odds: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
- Spread: Raptors -6.5
- Over/Under: 229
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN
>> All odds as of 12:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
The surging 17-8 Philadelphia 76ers will travel to Toronto tonight to face the 20-5 Raptors. Can the new-look Philly squad with Jimmy Butler hang with the East's best team? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
The Raptors lost for just the fifth time on Monday. Should bettors expect Toronto to bounce back tonight?
Since 2005, elite teams (win rate of at least 80%) have gone 93-85-1 ATS when favored after a loss. If the team is a home favorite, like the Raps, the teams have gone 57-44-1 (56%) ATS. — John Ewing
The Raptors and Sixers enter this Eastern Conference showdown as two of the top three seeds in the East, with both teams going over the total in at least 60% of their games this season.
The Raptors are the second-most profitable team to the over this season, while the Sixers rank among the top 10 to the over.
Since 2005, when two teams meet that have a win rate of 60% or higher, including both teams’ games going over the total at least 60% of the time, the under is 35-24 ATS (59.3%), going under the total by 3.8 PPG. — Evan Abrams
Barkley: Why I Betting the Over/Under
The Raptors are so good, even when they lose it’s kind of impressive. I watched the game against Denver two nights ago; both teams looked really sharp for large portions of the game, and the stars showed up in a big way.
Sure, the Raps lost, but there was no part of that game that would make make me downgrade them in my ratings.
For this game, the market has installed the Raptors as 6.5-point favorites against this improving Sixers team.
Toronto generally gets a ton of credit in the market when playing at home: The Raptors were just -3 at home against the Celtics early this season, but that’s the only spread shorter than this one for a Raptors home game.
When the Raptors played the Sixers earlier this year at home, the line was very similar (-6). Toronto won by 17, but that was before Philly’s trade, obviously.
I think the spread appropriately reflects just how good the Sixers have been recently and how much the Raptors have sneakily struggled.
In the past four games, Toronto has had one of its worst offensive performances of the season and two of its four worst defensive performances of the season, per Cleaning the Glass.
It's been a rough patch for them, relatively speaking.
Meanwhile, the Sixers have had three straight games of incredible defensive efficiency — their best stretch of the season — while the offense still has had its bumps.
The expectation of a competitive game is justified. At the current number of Raptors -6.5, I would lean toward the 76ers given their recent play but would not bet it considering how good Toronto is at home.
The over/under, however, has my attention. I think the Sixers have demonstrated that they’ve really figured it out on defense, and of the four units playing in this game (Raptors offense/defense and 76ers offense/defense), I think that’s the most dominant in terms of recent play coming into the game and the one that should be trusted the most to show up here.
Both offenses have been pretty inconsistent of late, and considering the stakes of this matchup, I don’t think there’s going to be a letdown on the defensive end from either team.
This is one of the highest Raptors totals of the season (one of the higher ones for the 76ers, too), despite the fact these teams have gone under a lot recently and Philly’s defense has been so good.
I will take the under here once again, which is currently at 229. — Ken Barkley
Mears: What Do the 76ers Look Like With Butler So Far?
Since Nov. 14, the night of Butler's first game as a 76er, Toronto and Philadelphia have been two of the best teams in the league, posting point differentials of +8.5 and +6.9, respectively.
Interestingly, however, Butler's on/off numbers aren't amazing so far in Philly. In his 328 minutes with the 76ers, the team has actually been 4.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor vs. off.
Most of that is on offense, as they're 3.3 points/100 worse with him on vs. off.
Diving further into those splits, the 76ers have increased their shot frequency at the rim by 10.1% with Butler on the floor (99th percentile of players this year), but they've also shot 10.4% fewer 3-pointers (worst mark in the league).
Playing a Raptors squad tonight that ranks first in the league in defending the rim, that could be problematic.
Of course, if attacking the rim comes in transition, that's a good sign. And that's largely been the case during Butler's Philly tenure. The 76ers have run 4.7% fewer plays in the halfcourt with him on the floor, and they've increased their transition opportunities by 2.5%.
And perhaps most importantly, they've pushed off steals 29.2% more with Butler playing, which makes sense given his defensive prowess, along with that of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.
But that does leave question marks for big games like tonight and when they reach the playoffs. Rotations will tighten and teams will scout more. The Raptors will be fine making the contest a halfcourt affair, as Toronto ranks fourth in points/play on offense in the halfcourt and third on defense.
The Raptors have had some turnover problems this year, ranking 20th so far in offensive turnover rate, so perhaps that plagues them against the length of Philly.
But there is a question of whether the strategy of pushing in transition, getting steals and relying on getting to the foul line will work as the competition stiffens, especially in a playoff series.
These teams are equals in talent — Philly might have more actually — but will the 76ers' style of play hurt them tonight? We'll find out. — Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
