Spurs vs. 76ers Odds & Pick: Fade San Antonio On Monday Night

Spurs vs. 76ers Betting Odds

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Does Monday night's matchup against the Spurs count as a home game for the 76ers? That means they must win, right? Are the Spurs making a legitimate run for the playoffs?

Let's break it down.

San Antonio Spurs

At 26-31-1, the Spurs have been the third-worst team against the spread (ATS) this season. What's interesting is that when the Spurs have a rest disadvantage, they jump to 10-7-1 ATS. Can we trust the Spurs to cover against the Sixers on a neutral floor, though?

From a personnel perspective this is a brutal game for the Spurs as they're without LaMarcus Aldridge to try and combat Joel Embiid. I honestly am shocked the Spurs started 2-0 in the bubble. Per Cleaning the Glass, they have a negative net rating on the season -1.2. And even though their net rating increases with Aldridge on the floor to +1.9, this is still only good for 14th in the league.

I'm not sold on the Spurs. They seem hot, but they really just beat two teams with bottom-tier net ratings on the season: Memphis (-1.3/18th) and Sacramento (-2.5/21st).

The public reacts to and is subject to recency bias, and it's been favorable to fade the Spurs ATS after a straight-up win.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers will be without Mike Scott, and Glenn Robinson II is listed as doubtful. For a team that's already struggling with continuity and winning on any type of court away from Philadelphia, this could be problematic.

The 76ers will rely once again on Embiid as he looks to build on his monster 41-point, 21-rebound performance against the Indiana Pacers. When the 76ers and Spurs met on Nov. 22, Embiid had an excellent game with 21/14 in a 76ers' win (and cover).

The 76ers' greatest enemy is themselves — for a team with so much talent, their home/road splits are difficult to comprehend. Per Cleaning the Glass, the 76ers are the second-best home team in the league in net rating (+12.1), but they're 24th as an away team (-5.7). The 76ers did not play poorly in their loss to the Pacers, T.J. Warren just had a career performance with 53 points. Embiid dominated Myles Turner and he should do the same to Jakob Pöltl.

Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are virtually unaffected in their counting stats at home vs. the road. Per Cleaning the Glass, it's their team defense that falters. Maybe it has something to do with crowd noise, or it's just mental, but I expect the neutral court to allow the 76ers to settle closer to their average. Instead of a 113.2 defensive rating on the road, I think they will play closer to a defensive rating of 108.3.

This vacuum environment should help the 76ers in the long run.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The talent clearly favors the 76ers and they should be able to dominate the Spurs on the glass.

The 76ers are the second-best rebounding team in the league while the Spurs are 20th. This is a massive advantage and I'm looking for Embiid to have an excellent game without the individual defensive prowess of LaMarcus Aldridge blocking the paint.

I'm fading the Spurs' hot start and backing the 76ers in the bubble.

THE PICK: 76ers -6.5 (up to -7.5)

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