Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Bet on Aron Baynes to Hit Boards vs. Brooklyn

Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Bet on Aron Baynes to Hit Boards vs. Brooklyn article feature image

Pictured: Suns C Aron Baynes (46), Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA Today Sports

  • Sunday's seven-game NBA slate features two player prop bets offering value.
  • This piece will focus on Suns C Aron Baynes and Hawks F De'Andre Hunter.

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post the best lines.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Saturday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s seven games:

  • Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns: 8 p.m. ET
  • Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers: 8 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Suns C Aron Baynes

THE PICK: Over 7.5 rebounds (-103)

Baynes has emerged as the preferred center option for the Phoenix Suns. He’s logged at least 27.9 minutes in each of his past four games. That said, it hasn’t exactly led to a bunch of rebounds: He’s been at seven rebounds or fewer in three of those contests.

Still, I’m optimistic about his chances on the glass today. He has an excellent matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have given up big games in bunches to opposing centers. They have faced five centers who have played at least 25 minutes against them this season, and they’ve given up at least eight rebounds to all of them (per Basketball Reference). Four of those five players have grabbed at least 11 boards, so this is an outstanding spot.

I love Baynes tonight, so I’m willing to play this prop up to -135.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Hawks F De’Andre Hunter

THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-125)

Hunter is probable to suit up tonight, but this line seems high given what we’ve seen from him this season. He’s averaging just 8.3 points per game, and he’s scored under 10.5 points in four of his first seven contests. He also saw a reduction in playing time in his last contest, and that trend could continue with Kevin Huerter seeing more minutes off the bench.

Hunter also owns a subpar matchup vs. the Thunder. They rank in the top 10 in terms of defensive efficiency and bottom 10 in terms of pace.

Hunter wasn’t drafted by the Hawks because of his ability to score the ball, but rather his ability to do everything else. I like the under up to -140.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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