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Suns vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Golden State If Stephen Curry Suits Up (January 10)

Suns vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Golden State If Stephen Curry Suits Up (January 10) article feature image
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Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors.

Suns vs. Warriors Odds

Suns Odds +11.5
Warriors Odds -11.5
Over/Under 229.5
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors will renew their rivalry on Tuesday night, and the buzz is so palpable that Stephen Curry just might make his long-awaited return from injury.

With Golden State nearly at full strength now and Phoenix struggling mightily without its best player, oddsmakers aren’t giving the road team much of a chance here.

Let’s break it down and go through some Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns picks and predictions.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been struggling for over a month now, but they really haven’t been the same since Devin Booker went down with an injury. He’s played just three games since Dec. 9 and will miss his eighth straight on Tuesday when the Suns travel to Golden State. In that stretch without Booker, Phoenix is 2-10 straight up and 3-9 against the spread.

Now, the Suns are without Chris Paul again. He missed Sunday’s loss to the Cavaliers with right hip soreness and has already been ruled out for this tilt. While he’s currently considered day-to-day, it’s certainly not helping the Suns secure the momentum-changing win they so desperately crave.

The reality is that Phoenix is in a critical part of its season. With a win on Tuesday, it would surpass Golden State and crawl into sixth place, which is good enough to make the playoffs. A loss would drop them to 11th, which is teetering on the brink of missing the play-in tournament.

With so much parity in the Western Conference, it’s put up or shut up time for the Suns. Another couple weeks of this could put them in a hole they can’t crawl out of, even when Booker returns.


Golden State Warriors

On the other side of things, it’s happy days once again for the Warriors. Curry was a full participant in practice on Monday and has been upgraded to probable for Tuesday’s game. Should he play as expected, it would be his first action since Dec. 14. (Be sure to follow our FantasyLabs news page for up to date injury information.)

Unlike the Suns, the Warriors have stayed afloat in the games without Curry. They’ve gone 6-5 straight up over that stretch and have won four of their last sit. With that said, a lot of that coincides with a massive homestand which is coming to an end on Tuesday. The Warriors are a stellar 14-6-1 against the spread at home, meaning they’ve covered in 70% of all games in the Bay Area. Conversely, they’re 4-15 ATS on the road and 1-7 ATS as the road favorites.

One thing worth noting here would be that the Warriors have not defended well in the last 10 games. During that time, they rank 19th with a 115.4 Defensive Rating. They’ve been even worse offensively, ranking 23rd in the NBA with just 111.4 points scored per 100 possessions. So, while it may seem on the surface that the Warriors are fine, perhaps they do need Curry back in a big way.

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Suns-Warriors Pick

While you’d think the Warriors shoot more threes with Curry on the floor, the reality is that 1.3% more of their scoring has come inside the arc with the two-time MVP in the lineup. This is due largely to an increase in midrange jumpers and fastbreak points.

The Suns have been one of the worst in the NBA with a 56.3% defended field goal percentage against two-pointers over the last 10 games, which is just outside the bottom third of the league. Against midrange jumpers, they’re allowing a mediocre 42.2% of looks to fall.

Nothing here gives me any confidence in the Suns, but these two figures coupled with a down season defensively for Deandre Ayton leads me to believe it’ll be nearly impossible for the visitors to make any sort of impact defensively against a super-charged Warriors offense with Curry in the lineup. Phoenix is really this bad and it should lose by a hefty bunch in the Bay Area, where the Warriors rarely lose this season.

Pick: Warriors -11.5 (If Curry plays)

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