A new survey from The Action Network polled 4,398 US NBA fans to find out how they think they'd actually perform if they stepped onto the court with the pros. The survey represents fans from all 30 current NBA fanbases, all adult age groups and all US states.

The survey asked fans three questions:

• Whether they could sink a half-court shot
• How many buckets they think they could score in a pick-up game against an average pro
• How their three-point shot compares to a pro's

The results show a surprising level of self-belief among fans when it comes to their own game.

Highlights

• 2 in 5 NBA fans (41%) believe they could sink a half-court shot.
• Over half of male fans (55%) think they could make the half-court shot, more than double the rate of female fans (24%).
• Almost half or more of every age group under 55 believe they have the half-court shot in their bag (52% of 18-24s, 53% of 25-34s, 47% of 35-44s, 43% of 45-54s), compared to just 25% of fans 55+.
• Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers fans are the most confident fanbases on the half-court shot, with 57% of each believing they could sink it, compared to just 27% of Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns fans
• Nobody (0%) said they couldn't score a single bucket against an average pro, and the average fan puts their expected output at 2.4 buckets.
• 1 in 3 fans (34%) think they could score 3 or more buckets in a pick-up game against an average pro
• Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers fans again top the league, averaging 2.9 expected buckets against a pro, compared to just 1.7 for Indiana Pacers fans – the lowest of any fanbase.
• Nearly 1 in 3 fans (31%) rate their three-point shot as on par with, or even better than, an average pro's, with 18-24 year-olds the most confident age group (30%) and fans 55+ the least confident (9%).
• Brooklyn Nets fans are the most confident fanbase of all on the three-point shot, with 64% rating theirs as better than, the same as, or almost as good as a pro's, compared to just 17% of Milwaukee Bucks fans.

Question 1: Do you think you could sink a half-court shot?

Despite the half-court shot being one of the most difficult attempts in basketball, 2 in 5 NBA fans (41%) believe they could pull it off.

Confidence runs highest among male fans, over half (55%) of whom say they'd make the shot, compared to just 24% of female fans. Age also plays a big role in self-belief: almost half or more of every age group under 55 believe they could sink it (52% of 18-24s, 53% of 25-34s, 47% of 35-44s, and 43% of 45-54s), compared to just 25% of fans 55 and over.

Fandom makes a significant difference too. Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers fans are tied as the most confident in the league, with 57% of each saying they could make a half-court shot, well above the 41% average. At the other end, Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns fans are the least convinced, with just 27% of each believing they could sink it – meaning Nets and Clippers fans are more than twice as likely to back themselves from half-court as Bucks and Suns fans.

Question 2: In a game of pick-up basketball, how many buckets do you think you could score against the average pro?

Fans aren't just confident about hitting a single lucky shot – many believe they could consistently put the ball in the basket against a pro. Notably, not a single fan (0%) said they'd fail to score at all, and men and women were almost equally confident on this question overall (2.5 vs 2.3 expected buckets on average). While half of fans (50%) say they'd manage just one bucket, 1 in 3 fans (34%) believe they could score three or more baskets in a pick-up game against an average pro, and the average fan puts their expected output at 2.4 buckets.

Age once again proves to be a major factor: nearly 2 in 3 fans aged 18-24 (63%) think they'd score multiple buckets (two or more) against a pro, compared to just 35% of fans aged 55 and over, almost half the rate. Fans aged 25-34 were the boldest of all when it came to the highest bracket, with 4% saying they could score 8 or more buckets against an average pro, the highest rate of any age group.

The same two fanbases lead the way by team, too. Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers fans both expect to average 2.9 expected buckets against a pro, well clear of the 2.4 overall average. Indiana Pacers fans are the least confident of any fanbase, expecting to average just 1.7 buckets – meaning Nets and Clippers fans expect to outscore Pacers fans by more than one full bucket per game.

Question 3: How do you think your three-point shot compares to that of the average pro?

When it comes to shooting from downtown, fans are notably bold about their chances. Nearly 1 in 3 fans (31%) say their three-point shot is better than, the same as, or almost as good as an average pro's, with 6% going as far as to say they shoot it better than the pros, and a further 11% rating it as the same.

Confidence is highest among younger fans: 30% of 18-24 year-olds and 28% of 25-34 year-olds rate their shot as better than or the same as a pro's, and when the "almost as good" bracket is included, confidence climbs to 47% for both of these age groups. This stands in stark contrast to fans aged 55 and over, where just 9% rate their shot as better than or the same as a pro's, and only 18% rate it as better, the same, or almost as good – making 18-24 year-olds roughly three times more confident in their three-point shot than the oldest fans.

Brooklyn Nets fans stand out as the league's most confident fanbase on the three-point shot by some distance: a combined 64% rate theirs as better than, the same as, or almost as good as a pro's, including 36% who say it's "the same" as a pro's outright. At the opposite end, just 17% of Milwaukee Bucks fans rate their three-point shot as better than, the same as, or almost as good as a pro's – meaning Nets fans are nearly four times more confident in their shot from deep than Bucks fans.

Polymarket currently offers multiple markets for the current NBA season; if you are interested in prediction markets, you can have a look at our Polymarket promo code.

Methodology

• The survey was conducted in October 2026.
• The sample comprised 4,398 US NBA fans.
• All research conducted adheres to the MRS Codes of Conduct (2023) in the UK and ICC/ESOMAR World Research Guidelines (2023).
• The full breakdown of the questions and answers can be found in its raw form here.