The Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) and Minnesota Timberwolves (0-2) will face off in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 2.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Thunder -2.5), with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -150 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks on Saturday, May 24.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Picks, Prediction for Western Conference Finals Game 3
My Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 3 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -2.5 (-115)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds for Saturday, May 24
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 218.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 218.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves spread: Thunder -2.5
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves over/under: 218.5 total points
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves moneyline: Thunder -150, Timberwolves +125
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves best bet:Thunder -2.5 (-115)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Western Conference Finals Game 3 Preview
Let’s start with some trends.
- Home teams down 0-2 are 75-56 (57%) SU and 73-56-2 (56%) ATS in Game 3 since 2003.
- Home teams in the conference finals down 0-2 are 12-7 SU, 13-6 ATS.
- Home dogs after Round 1 down 0-2 are 10-12 SU, 11-11 ATS.
- Home dogs off a double-digit loss down 0-2 (so they haven’t been able to build any momentum) are 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS.
The market is behind the Timberwolves in Game 3 tonight.
At the time of writing, 78% of the tickets and 80% of the money are on the Thunder in tonight's contest, but after initially moving towards Oklahoma City, the line has moved back to the original open of Thunder -2.5, and in our PRO tools, we’ve tracked sharp money on Minnesota.
The basketball side gets tricky.
The Wolves don't have a lot more adjustments here. They tried a zone defense to slow down Oklahoma City in last game, and it didn’t work at all because the Thunder saw so much of it against Denver.
Minnesota has very little trust right now in each other defensively. You see a lot of possessions where they are over-helping on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which leaves him wide open shooters one pass away.
The Wolves have won the minutes with Mike Conley by a lot and lost the minutes without him by a lot. They have lost the minutes with Rudy Gobert by a little and gotten annihilated in the minutes without him.
The old adage, ”Role players play better at home” needs to be true for Minnesota in Game 3 tonight.
Naz Reid is in the struggle-zone right now and they badly need his shooting. But the rest of the Wolves have to make shots in Game 3 to force out the Thunder defense and open up driving lanes.
If I see Minnesota post up against the best team at forcing turnovers again, particularly in the lane, I’m going to run my face into a door.
Anthony Edwards got loose last game. If he can repeat that performance with better supporting shooting and Chris Finch actually playing Rudy Gobert for rim protection, they’re live to win Game 3 tonight.
Now, let's discuss the total.
Under Chris Finch, the Timberwolves are 9-9 at home in the playoffs, both SU and ATS. However, the over is 12-6 in their home games.
- The Wolves shot less than 30% from three-point range in back-to-back games. When home teams, after coming off such a poor shooting performance, they have actually seen the under go and 5-10 in the conference playoffs.
The total is up about a half-point from the opening line of 217.5.
- 94% of the tickets and 93% of the money in our Action Network systems is on the over, and we’re also tracking sharp money on the over.
All that said, I still make the line for tonight's matchup 214, well below the number.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Betting Predictions for Game 3
Thunder -2.5 (-115)
After the previous game, I upgraded the Thunder in my power ratings by a point after I had downgraded them two points for playoffs based on how hard it is to maintain an elite point differential against tougher competition.
For the most part they have, so I bumped them up by a point.
I downgraded the Wolves by the 1.5 points that I had previously given them to start the playoffs, based on the idea that they had a higher gear in them.
I was willing to give them a pass for the Warriors series because that’s the kind of team that knows it can only win by making you look bad. But after two dominant wins by Oklahoma City, I bumped the Wolves back down.
After those adjustments, I make the line for tonight's contest Thunder -3.4.
I like this Wolves team. It’s a good desperation spot for them. But I can’t get there on the number. I’m not excited about it but I’ll lay the points in Game 3.
Thunder Team Total Over 110.5 (-115)
The question is basically, “Will either side’s shooters warm up?”
The Wolves are the more likely team to do so, as they have shot less than 30% on mostly open jumpers, and role players shoot better at home. Although, against the Thunder's defense, I’m not sure anything is ever truly “unguarded."
The Thunder shot great in the first game of the series and then regressed.
As bad as the Wolves’ offense has been, their defense has struggled to slow down the Thunder. They’ve given up 53 points off turnovers in two games.
That doesn’t seem likely to slow down, either, as the Wolves don’t have a lot of offensive counters without another ball-handler creator.
Those numbers, of course, lead to an over because they’re mostly live-ball turnovers headed the other way for quick scores.
I’m going to split the difference here. The trends say bad-shooting teams don’t actually regress. The basketball side says the Wolves will keep turning the ball over. So, I’m going to go with the Thunder team total over.
Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists (-155)
Don’t get greedy, take the over 4.5 at -155 and don’t accept the 5.5-line at most books.
Williams has been terrific in this series and has 5+ assists in eight of his last 10 playoff games, and both games in this series.
He can absolutely go for more, but with how the Wolves are guarding Shai, his usage won’t be enough.
If the Wolves change it up and blitz Shai, Williams’ assists will go up as well.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 3 Best Bets
- Thunder -2.5 (-115)
- Thunder Team Total Over 110.5 (-115)
- Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists (-155)
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Betting Trends
