The NBA Eastern Conference Finals continue tonight at Madison Square Garden, as the New York Knicks host the Cleveland Cavaliers for a highly anticipated Game 2 showdown. New York looks to defend its home floor and take a commanding 2-0 series lead, while a resilient Cleveland squad is desperate to rebound from a catastrophic Game 1 collapse and secure a vital road split.
Continue below for our NBA best bets and player props for Knicks vs. Cavaliers Game 2 on Thursday, May 21.
NBA Best Bets for Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 2
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Spread / Moneyline Bets
Before you do anything tonight, you have to completely remove yourself from the raw emotion of what we just saw. Getting caught up in that historic 22-point fourth-quarter collapse is a surefire way to lose your money. Go pray, meditate, or take a long walk—do whatever you need to do to clear your head before you slam bad bets into your apps based on the drama of Game 1.
Let's look at this pragmatically. We spent all of Game 1 baking a heavy rest disadvantage into the line for Cleveland. Yet heading into Game 2, the oddsmakers are keeping this number rock-steady at Cavs +6.5. That tells me the public's emotional overreaction is being heavily baked into the price, and that is exactly where I plug my nose and flip to the value side.
Even after their epic meltdown, the Cavs were still a literal centimeter away from escaping with a Game 1 win, if only Sam Merrill’s late shot would have dropped. The rest disparity will start to diminish tonight. So, I'm backing the Cavaliers in Game 2, putting 75% of my wager on the +6.5 point spread and throwing the remaining 25% on the moneyline at +190.
If Donovan Mitchell is officially ruled in, this line is going to close around +5.5, meaning we're already walking away with a point of closing line value. The macro-data backs this up as well: over the last five years, teams coming off an outright loss in Game 1 cover at a 64% clip (34-19 ATS) in Game 2, and road 'dogs off an ATS loss cash at 63% since 2005. Fade the noise.
Pick: Cavaliers +6.5 (-115) / Moneyline (+190)
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks First Quarter Prop Escalator
I am going right back to an early-game Karl-Anthony Towns prop, but this time we are targeting his playmaking out of the gates.
In Game 1, the Knicks completely abandoned the KAT hub offense down the stretch, and you saw exactly how stagnant and predictable things got. They actually opened the game running everything through him—he dropped two quick assists in the first four minutes of the game—but he finished the night with only five total assists on five potentials.
The Knicks simply cannot run Jalen Brunson hero ball for 48 minutes straight without running their star into the ground. New York's coaching staff knows they have to get back to what was working early, and running the offense through Towns at the high post is their definitive "easy button" to counter Cleveland's double-big interior length.
Over his last eight games, Towns' playmaking has reached a new level, jumping up to 7.6 assists per game. When you isolate his first-quarter distribution across those eight games, his assist tracking is startling: 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 0, 5, and 2. That is an average of 2.4 assists in the opening frame, with Towns clearing the 2+ assist mark in 75% of those games (6-of-8).
One of those two misses was a skewed, five-minute stint because of quick fouls. By comparison, in the 22 other quarters he played in that same span, he averaged just 1.9 assists and only cleared this bar 45% of the time.
I like KAT to hit two assists in the first quarter of Game 2 at +134 on FanDuel.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 First Quarter Assists (+134) + Escalator
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks Over/Under Bet
By Matt Moore
The historical trends heavily favor the over following an opening-game overtime slugfest. Since 2003, the over is 12-8 in Game 2s after an initial OT game, and 30-21-2 across all postseason games following extra frames—including a 5-3 clip in the conference finals.
Additionally, Cleveland fits this high-scoring trajectory perfectly, carrying a 5-3 over record on the road this postseason.
The on-court execution from Game 1 maps out a blueprint for sustained offensive efficiency. Cleveland generated 50 three-point attempts, while New York thoroughly dominated inside with 60 points in the paint. Pair that aggressive shot-hunting with defensive lapses that led to a combined 55 free throws, and it's clear neither side possesses the structural discipline required to drag down the tempo.
Barring a catastrophic injury setback to Mitchell, Cleveland's offense should retain its high ceiling, and James Harden is primed for a bounce-back game. The Knicks will continue to surrender premium looks to good shooters. I'll take the over.
Pick: Over 216.5 (-110)
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks Player Prop
All we need tonight is for Dennis Schroder to make one single three-pointer to cash this bet at plus-money. In Game 1, Dennis shot an ugly 1-for-9 from the field and went 0-of-5 on his two-point attempts, and he went 1-for-4 from behind the arc. However, the number of attempts (4) is the only volume metric that matters to me when it comes to this prop.
If Kenny Atkinson is stubbornly going to keep him out on the floor for his usual 18 to 20 minutes, Dennis is going to let it fly. The injury context makes this play even more intriguing. Mitchell is laboring on a tweaked ankle, and Harden looks unable to get by guys off the bounce anymore—the man logged five flops last game, three of them in overtime, because he simply can't generate clean offensive separation.
The Cavs have no choice but to lean on Schröder to orchestrate. The Knicks' defensive scheme is gladly going to yield that outside look to him all night long because they want to bait Dennis into shooting rather than letting Cleveland execute a clean drive-and-kick to a superior shooter.
He’s already hit 10 triples in these playoffs; I think he'll find a way to knock down another one tonight.
Pick: Dennis Schroder Over 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (+102)
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks Prop Ladder
By Pick Labs
Oddsmakers are discounting Jarrett Allen's scoring ceiling after a quiet 10-point performance in Game 1. However, looking deeper into the Game 1 box score and his recent game logs reveals a secure operational role.
While Allen only shot 3-of-6 from the field, he still logged 35 minutes of action—well over his postseason baseline allotment of 29.1 minutes per game.
Even though Game 1 required an overtime period, it is evident that Kenny Atkinson relies on Allen to anchor the paint against New York's bruising frontcourt.
Allen's scoring traits are proven; he has cleared 16+ points in four of his last seven games, while flashing a much higher ceiling by eclipsing 22+ points twice in that stretch.
With Allen's minutes floor expected to remain stable to combat the Knicks' elite rebounding, a natural upward regression in field goal attempts is likely coming.
Our Pick Labs model projects a 53.8% chance of Allen scoring 15+ points in Game 2. The volume should be there for him tonight, making the +223 alternate rung a spectacular target.
- 12+ Points (-119): 75.0% Projected Chance | 20.6% Edge
- 15+ Points (+223): 53.8% Projected Chance | 22.8% Edge
Pick: Jarrett Allen 15+ Points (+223)
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks Player Prop Projection
Our Action PRO projections have isolated a premier value opportunity backing Mitchell Robinson in tonight’s Game 2 showdown. While sportsbooks have set his baseline points total at a low bar of 4.5, our data-driven model projects Robinson's true offensive output at 5.88 points, securing a strong 19.9% betting edge at even-money.
The market seems to be over-adjusting to his Game 1 performance, where he finished with 4 points on 1-of-3 shooting from the field. Cleveland deployed the "Hack-a-Mitch" strategy, which resulted in a brutal 2-of-8 (25%) mark from the free-throw line. While Robinson is undoubtedly a bad free-throw shooter, he is not THAT bad. He knocked down a far more respectable 40.8% from the charity stripe during the regular season.
If the Cavaliers continue to foul him inside to stop easy buckets, positive regression dictates that he will make a higher percentage of his free throw attempts moving forward. Robinson remains a constant target for high-percentage put-backs and lobs, having comfortably scored 6+ points in five of his last seven appearances leading into tonight.
Grab the over at plus-money and hold your breath when he's at the foul line.
Pick: Mitchell Robinson Over 4.5 Points (-105)
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