The Minnesota Timberwolves (1-3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (3-1) will face off in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread, with the over/under set at 220.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -350 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +275 to pull off the upset.
Last game was an excellent offensive performance for the Wolves. They scored points in the paint, had a better effective field goal percentage, a higher free-throw rate, and more second-chance points. However, they turned the ball over just enough for Oklahoma City to sneak out a 2-point win.
Can Minnesota force another home game and put a little more pressure on OKC by winning Game 5 tonight? Or will the Thunder reach the NBA Finals for the first time in 12 years?
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, May 28.
Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction for Western Conference Finals Game 5
My Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 5 best bet is on the Over at 220.5 total points, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Over 220.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Thunder Odds, Picks for Wednesday, May 28
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -115 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | +275 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -105 | 220.5 -110 / -110 | -350 |
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -8.5
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder over/under: 220.5 total points
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder moneyline: Timberwolves +275, Thunder -350
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder best bet: Over 220.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Preview
The Timberwolves had their chances in this series.
The Thunder left the door open in the second matchup, but the Wolves’ combination of mistakes and a horrendous game plan buried them.
The Wolves also had a chance to to win the fourth game at home. But they didn’t, because the Thunder are simply better and were able to win the margins enough to earn the victory.
This is a bad spot for the Wolves. It turns out that by Game 5, if one team has won three of the four, that team is probably better and both teams know it.
Now it’s 3-1, and the series is effectively over.
This is a particularly bad spot for Minnesota.
It turns out that by Game 5, if one team has won three of the four games, that team is probably better and both teams know it by then.
- Home favorites up 3-1 are 79-20 SU and 45-52-2 ATS (46%) since 2003.
- In the conference finals, those teams are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS.
- Home favorites up 3-1 who won the previous game are 45-32-2 ATS, with a point differential of +12 per game.
- Teams with three wins in the series as more than 4-point favorites are 191-55 (78%) and 131-112-3 (54%) ATS.
- The Thunder are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the playoffs at home, with an average margin of victory of 23.9 points per game.
- Teams coming off a game where they made 15 or more threes on 40% or better are 1-7 SU and 3-4 ATS, including 0-3 SU on the road.
Not looking great, Wolves!
How about on the basketball side?
The Wolves were unable to follow up Anthony Edwards' high-scoring performance in the third game after the Thunder ramped up their defensive intensity. They blitzed him constantly and forced him to pass.
Minnesota has struggled to get its shooters going on the road, especially Donte DiVincenzo.
On top of that, the Wolves have been crushed in his minutes defensively. They struggle to score with Rudy Gobert on the floor and can’t defend at all without him.
The Thunder have gotten great contributions from Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and the bench, while the Wolves don’t know what they’re getting from Julius Randle on a nightly basis.
The floor and ceiling for both teams could not be wider.
So, also not ideal. I lean Thunder here, but it’s too many points. The better move is to add Oklahoma City moneyline to a same game parlay.
Timberwolves vs Thunder Betting Predictions for Game 5
Over 220.5 (-110)
The over is 3-1 in this series. The Wolves’ plan had to be to make this a defensive series, and they haven’t been able to slow down Oklahoma City.
Part of that problem is turnovers and how consistently the Thunder create turnovers.
Minnesota is a high-turnover rate team, and there’s really no way for them to avoid the Thunder going the other way.
Over the last three seasons, when the Wolves have more turnovers than their opponent, the over is 10-6.
That’s pretty much the whole deal here.
In order to bet the under, you have to believe that the Wolves can limit their turnovers, and there’s no evidence that suggests any team on the planet can keep those down against the Thunder’s pack of ball demons.
Anthony Edwards First Quarter Over 2.5 Rebounds (+150)
I’m stealing this from Brandon Anderson on the latest episode of Buckets.
Edwards has been a monster on the glass in this series with a good chance to finish as the series leader (50-1 pre-series, via Anderson).
Rudy Gobert isn’t getting rebounds, but neither are the Thunder. Edwards is.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)
The Wolves will keep their defensive scheme from the last two games, and that path opens up 3-point opportunities for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
He took seven long-range attempts last game, and will likely have roughly the same amount looks in Game 5 tonight.
It’s not a shot he loves, nor is he particularly good at pull-up threes, but he needs to make them, and the opportunities will be there.
Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 5 Best Bets
- Over 220.5 (-110)
- Anthony Edwards 1Q Over 2.5 Rebounds (+150)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-125)
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends
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