Tuesday’s 3 Best NBA Player Prop Bets: Big Rebounds for Little Guards Tonight?
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s eight games:
- Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Hawks PG Trae Young
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (+110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Trae Young continues to put up monster numbers for the Hawks, and he’ll be starting in this year’s All-Star Game because of them. Young is averaging 29.5 points, 8.9 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game. He’s top five in the NBA in both scoring and passing, but his rebounds are what we’re interested in today.
Young’s rebounding has slowly gone up from 4.0 per game in November to 4.4 in December and now 5.5 in January, right at this number. He’s learning how to get a board and start the break, and he’s gone over this number in three of the last four. Our model projects him at 6.6 rebounds tonight, and I love that the odds are in our favor here. I’ll play Trae’s rebounds up to -110.
Suns PF Dario Saric
THE PICK: Under 8.5 points (+100) | Under 5.5 rebounds (-121) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Dario Saric was a real Rookie of the Year contender only a few years ago, but that seems like a long time ago now. Saric has bounced from Philadelphia to Minnesota to Phoenix and still hasn’t found stable footing at any of his new homes. He’s averaging 9.9 points and 6.1 rebounds for the Suns, but his production has been really uneven.
In 25 of 46 Suns games, Saric has scored single-digit points, and he’s had six or fewer rebounds 30 times. Occasionally there’s a big game thrown in, but now that Deandre Ayton is back, the production has really dwindled. Over the past month, Saric has gone under 8.5 points in 10 of 15 games and under 5.5 rebounds in all but three of them.
Feel free to play both props if you want to continue to fade Saric, as both of them rate as a 10 out of 10. The points give you better juice, but the rebounds are the surer play and I’ll take that one up to -145.
Raptors G Fred VanVleet
THE PICK: Over 3.5 rebounds (-134) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Freddy VanVleet is not a big dude, but that’s never stopped him from making big plays on a basketball court. VanVleet has become 1B to Kyle Lowry among Toronto guard options in a breakout season. His rebounding production is still pretty meager, but a fast-paced game against a young Atlanta team that misses a lot of shots gives him a great chance for production.
The good news is that VanVleet has at least three rebounds in all but one of his last 14 games. The bad news is he’s averaging only 3.8 boards a game during that span because he also has only two games with more than four.
Recent history says 3.5 is the right spot, but with the matchup in our favor, let’s hope for a fourth. Our model actually has FVV at 4.9 boards tonight, giving him a 31% margin on these odds — best on our board. I’ll play VanVleet up to -150 here.