Warriors vs. 76ers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Joel Embiid & Co. to Cover at Home (December 16)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
- The Philadelphia 76ers are double-digit favorites (Spread: -10) against the Golden State Warriors Friday.
- The Warriors are dealing with injuries, most importantly to Stephen Curry and Kenny Ducey is fading the defending champs.
- He breaks down the Warriors vs. 76ers odds and explains why the value is on the home team.
Editor’s Note: The Golden State Warriors have announced that Draymond Green is out tonight vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. For real-time injury updates, check out our FantasyLabs NBA news page.
Warriors vs. 76ers Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The losses for the Golden State Warriors were already beginning to pile up, then yet another body — easily their most important body — went down with an injury on Wednesday.
Now, the reigning champs will face an uphill battle against a resurgent Philadelphia 76ers team that is trying for its fourth straight win without Stephen Curry in the lineup.
Does this number make sense, or are the Warriors actually getting a little too much credit here? Let’s break this one down.
The Warriors Keep Taking Hits
The Warriors had just about forgotten what life was like without Curry when suddenly the two-time MVP went down with a shoulder injury that reportedly will keep him out several weeks. Now, the onus will be on Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson and a collection of role players to make up for the lost production on both ends of the floor.
That’s not all, however. In addition to Andrew Wiggins missing another game, Draymond Green is questionable for this tilt with a right quad contusion. The Warriors are 2-1 against the spread without Curry, but the combined absences, especially that of Green, may be too much to overcome.
The Curry-Green two-man lineup has unsurprisingly been one of the Warriors’ best this year, producing a Net Rating of +11.8. Wiggins and Green have been an even-better +13.1. Jordan Poole and … Anthony Lamb? They’re a -6.4. That’s a pairing that will probably get a hefty bit of run in this one. The Warriors’ bench has been outscore by 100 points this season, per NBA Advanced Stats.
So, this is a pretty precarious spot for the Warriors. That’s not even the start of it, either. This team wasn’t defending the post well to begin with, allowing 66.1% shooting inside of five feet which was among the 10 worst marks in the NBA. Now, they’re down their best interior defender and have to try and contain one of the league’s most prolific scorers in the paint. Yikes.
76ers Should Dominate the Paint
It feels like it’s been a long time since we could say this, but the Sixers’ greatest advantage here is their health. Yes, Tyrese Maxey is still out with a broken foot, but Joel Embiid will be in the lineup as well as Philly’s other impact players, James Harden and Tobias Harris.
The Sixers are in a very similar position as the Warriors when it comes to their weaknesses. They’re even worse than the Warriors at defending inside of five feet, ranking 25th in the NBA with a 66.6% field goal percentage allowed. They’re also 29th in Rebounding Rate this season. What helps is that these are also areas where the Warriors struggle (they’re 21st in rebounding) and now they may be thin up front.
Form-wise, the Sixers are in really solid shape heading into this home matchup with the Warriors. They’ve won three in a row, covering each time as the favorite, and they’re now 10-4-1 ATS at home. This is nothing new, though, considering the Sixers have historically dominated at Wells Fargo Center. Since 2019, Philly is 75-58-3 ATS at home, equating to a 56.4% hit rate.
Given the glaring weakness of the Warriors down low and their bevy of injury concerns, I think it makes sense to lay these points with the Sixers. With or without Green, Golden State has been terrible at slowing bigs. Now, it has to contain the best post scorer in the game.
Without Curry, I suspect this offense is going to look very bad. I know they’ve covered twice, but they’ve lost all three games and fell once by 42 points. The Sixers’ perimeter defense has been stunning to this point, allowing a league-best 32.6% shooting from deep.
I see no way in here for Golden State and I’ll lay up to 10 points with the home side.
Pick: Sixers -9 (-110) — Play to -10.