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Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Game 5 Preview, Prediction: Back Memphis to Cover at Home (May 11)

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds, Game 5 Preview, Prediction: Back Memphis to Cover at Home (May 11) article feature image
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Via Noah Graham/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 of the Memphis Grizzlies drives to the basket during the game against the Golden State Warriors during Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semifinals on May 1, 2022 at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee.

  • The Grizzlies are home underdogs in Game 6 against the Warriors.
  • With Ja Morant absent, can Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Grizzlies avoid elimination?
  • Jacob McKenna breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds

Warriors Odds -4.5
Grizzlies Odds +4.5
Over/Under 218.5 (-110/-110)
Time 9:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies will head back to Memphis to once again battle it out in a pivotal Game 5.

Despite not having Ja Morant available on Monday for Game 4, the Grizzlies fought to the very end and led the entire game up until the final two minutes. However, perhaps the lack of playoff experience with such a young team caught up to them, and guys like Steph Curry and Draymond Green made key plays down the stretch to seal the deal for Golden State.

Will we once again see the Warriors use that experience to their advantage and close out this series to secure a spot in the Western Conference Finals, or will Memphis extend this series to a sixth game?

The Warriors Offense Should Bounce Back

Game 4 was not a game that the Warriors should necessarily be proud of. They managed to hang around the play a great fourth quarter to win the game but scored just 38 points in the first half, shot 40% from the field overall and shot 24% on 3s after missing their first 15 shots from deep to begin the game.

However, a poor shooting performance like that is not the norm for the Warriors, and they’ve proven up to this point that they are more than capable of bouncing back.

Through nine postseason games, Golden State has the second-best Offensive Rating at 117.3, according to NBA Advanced Stats. The Suns are the only team with a better Offensive Rating, which goes to show how lethal of a scoring attack this team has.

Furthermore, for the entire postseason, this team is shooting just under 50% from the floor and 39% from behind the arc. Those numbers have slipped a bit in this series to 47.9% and 32.4% respectively, but even with a drop in efficiency, the Warriors have still remained competitive and now have a comfortable 3-1 lead.

Golden State is notorious for blowing a 3-1 lead in the past, but this team has tremendous depth behind Curry and Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson is back to full strength and having a large impact. Expect the Warriors to correct some of their Game 4 offensive shortcomings and play a much better game this time around.

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Grizzlies Can Survive Without Morant

Morant is the heartbeat of this Grizzlies team, and in this series, he has averaged 38.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 8.3 assists on 50.6% shooting.

However, it was announced on Tuesday that Morant will likely miss the rest of the postseason. But even without their star player, the Grizzlies have done a great job of remaining competitive and still dominated many of their opponents.

During the regular season, the Grizzlies shockingly had an impressive 20-5 record in games when Morant did not play. Over the course of that 25-game span, the Grizzlies averaged 117.76 points per game and only scored fewer than 100 points in three of those games, further proving their dominance without their star.

In addition, Memphis played basketball with tremendous efficiency without Morant, shooting 46.6% from the floor and 38% from beyond the arc. Tyus Jones, who averages 12.7 points, 6.6 assists, and 3.2 rebounds when starting in place of Morant, has proven to be a worthy back up and has kept the train on the tracks when asked to step up.

Warriors-Grizzlies Pick

Outside of Curry, Morant has arguably been the most impactful player in this series. However, Memphis has done just fine without him, and I think that remains the case once again.

Similar to the Warriors, the Grizzlies did not shoot the ball nearly as well as they can in Game 4. They shot 42% from the floor overall and 26% on 3s, both of which are way below their averages, and still held the lead for 45 of the 48 minutes.

Furthermore, in games without Morant, the Grizzlies have posted a Defensive Rating of 104.0 as Morant is one of their defensive weak links. This shows that they have held their opponents in check while playing with great efficiency on the offensive end.

I think the Grizzlies still have some fight left in them, and we should see that on their home court. Expect them to keep this game close, and I would play this spread to +3.

Pick: Grizzlies +4 (-110)

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