The Washington Wizards (16-47) and Miami Heat (36-29) will meet in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 15.5-point favorites over the Wizards on the spread (Heat -15.5), with the over/under set at 242.5 total points. Miami is a -950 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Washington is +625 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wizards vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, March 10.
Wizards vs Heat Prediction, Picks
- Wizards vs Heat picks: Heat -15.5 (-110), Under 242.5 (-110)
My Heat vs. Wizards best bets are on Miami to cover the spread and Under 242.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Wizards vs Heat Odds
| Wizards Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 242.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 242.5 -110o / -110u | -950 |
Wizards vs Heat NBA Preview
I make the spread for this game -16.5, and that’s without a substantive adjustment for injuries or tanking on the Wizards’ part, so there’s probably a few points of value here and there.
I don’t like laying this many points in a March matchup, things can get too wonky.
Do you need to put a beatdown on the Wizards, or can you just win by nine and call it good? Can you get up for this game after knocking off Detroit?
However, the Wizards are the No. 30 road team in the NBA ATS; the Heat are No. 3 at home.
The Wizards don’t cover more or less often vs. fast-paced teams at about 42 percent in all conditions, but that also means they aren’t more comfortable in those spots.
The Wizards have the worst transition offense in the league, and their halfcourt is nothing to write home about, either.
The Heat are 21-11 ATS against teams with a worse winning percentage than they have this season.
Wizards vs Heat Predictions, Betting Analysis
Heat -15.5
The Heat are playing some of their best basketball of the season and Tyler Herro is fitting in, finally.
There’s a good chance this is the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference, and they haven’t been a team that gets tripped up by bad teams very often.
The Heat are 9-6 ATS in the month of March since 2022 against opponents with a win percentage of less than 30 percent. They take care of business, and you can expect them to do so here.
Under 242.5
Miami might drop 150 points on Washington here, so taking the Wizards team total might be smarter, but I only have the Heat projected for 122 on their own, mostly on account of their offensive limitations.
Miami plays super fast and runs a ton; the Heat rank 1st in transition frequency — but they also rank 29th in efficiency in transition.
The Wizards do allow a high rate and efficiency in transition (3rd-highest frequency), but they are marginally better at transition defense (23rd).
I have the Wizards projected for 110 points in this game, and that feels generous.
Even with Trae Young playing and Washington having a 123 offensive rating with him on the floor, it’s unlikely Miami will allow that high of an efficiency.
I think this number is significantly too high. I project it at 232, and even with Young playing, I would bet it down to 240.
Wizards vs Heat Best Bets
- Heat -15.5 (-110)
- Under 242.5 (-110)
Spread
My first Wizards vs. Heat betting prediction is on Miami to cover the spread.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline here.
Over/Under
I also like the Under at 242.5 total points in tonight's matchup.
