The Auburn Tigers take on the Ole Miss Rebels in college baseball's Super Regionals at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 6. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Auburn enters as a favorite of -180 on the moneyline and is -1.5 (-111) on the run line. Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters as a +140 underdog and is +1.5 (-115) on the run line. The over/under sits at 9.5 total runs (-115o / -111u).
Let's dive into my Auburn vs Ole Miss prediction and college baseball picks for the Auburn Super Regional on Saturday, June 6.
Auburn vs Ole Miss Prediction
- Auburn vs Ole Miss Pick: Ole Miss ML +140
My Ole Miss vs. Auburn best bet is on the Rebels to win Game 2 of the Auburn Super Regional.
Auburn vs Ole Miss Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -111 | 9.5 -115o / -111u | -180 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 9.5 -115o / -111u | +140 |
Auburn vs Ole Miss Pick, Betting Analysis
One of the best strategies when betting the NCAA Baseball Tournament — and for any collegiate postseason, for that matter — is to bet hot teams.
Ole Miss rocketed up power ratings and is currently playing like a top-10 team nationally. The Rebels jumped four spots in RPI (now 10th) and rank 15th in Diamond Sports Rating (against the No. 2 strength of schedule).
More so than any other postseason, hot teams are completely taking over, regardless of ranking, seed, or end-of-year position.
Using a blend of power ratings (RPI, DSR, PEAR… KPI has been removed from the calculus since it is no longer updating), Ole Miss projects as a slight favorite in this one, with fair value at -117.
Last night, both Judd Utermark and Collin Reuter hit home runs to salvage the Rebels' 6-4 win.
Freshman Mason McCraine put forth tremendous individual effort to try and formulate an Auburn comeback, notching an RBI double in the sixth and homering in the ninth, but Walker Hooks managed to close things out for the Rebs.
Ole Miss sophomore Taylor Rabe should take the mound today (though we’ve seen some last-minute surprises). He last took the bump in Game 2 of the Lincoln Regional, where he tossed six innings and allowed just one run. In his last three, Rabe has struck out 36 batters.
He goes against Auburn’s Jake Marciano, who also has been called upon in high-pressure situations. Marciano pitched well in Auburn’s closeout game against Milwaukee, but his first start was atrocious, allowing six runs in just one complete inning of work.
He has more excellent games, like a six-inning performance where he held Georgia to two runs, but aggressive teams can put the bat on the ball and put runners on against the sophomore.
Auburn has played a lot of baseball over the last seven days.
I trust the Rebels’ relief staff more, though, as the team touts a 4.46 xFIP, third-best in the country and second among Super Regional teams. Auburn isn’t far behind (4.52, fifth), but this Rebels team is playing far above its season-long rating.
You can manufacture a 1.7% hold in this market by shopping around. Auburn is listed as low as -150, while +140 is the best price on Ole Miss. Getting to bet Ole Miss at +140 while projections suggest this team should be a favorite is where I’ll head today.
Pick: Ole Miss ML +140
