The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Texas A&M Aggies in a top-15 SEC college baseball showdown at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 14. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network+.
Mississippi State enters as a favorite of -125 on the moneyline and is -1.5 (+145) on the run line. Texas A&M, meanwhile, enters as a -105 underdog and is +1.5 (-188) on the run line. The over/under sits at 12 total runs (-115o / -115u).
Let's dive into my Mississippi State vs Texas A&M prediction and NCAA baseball picks for Thursday, May 14.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Prediction
- Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Pick: Mississippi State ML -130 or Better
My Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs to win the game outright.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 12 -115o / -115u | -125 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 12 -115o / -115u | -105 |
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Pick, Betting Analysis
Finally, we transition to the SEC, where we have a good one in store. The No. 12 Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to College Station to take on the No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies.
The Bulldogs haven't gotten much respect from the market in SEC play, and there's value on them once again tonight. They have a sizable edge on the mound with Tomas Valincius taking the bump.
Miss State's lethal lefty has pitched to a 2.52 ERA and holds a 0.99 WHIP while striking out over 12 batters per nine innings.
While he's in for a test against an Aggies lineup that ranks in the top five in OPS, wOBA and wRC+, Valincius should get run support from a Mississippi State lineup that has been excellent in its own right. The Bulldogs rank 11th nationally in OPS, wOBA and wRC+.
They present plenty of danger for Aggies starter Ethan Darden. Darden has been tremendous at generating soft contact. He has pitched to a 3.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but he strikes batters out at half the rate Valincius does.
It's clear the wrong team is favored here, and the Bulldogs still hold value as slight favorites.
Pick: Mississippi State ML -130 or Better
