The Murray State Racers face the Duke Blue Devils to close out the Durham Super Regional in the 2025 NCAA Baseball Tournament. First pitch is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke enters as a -260 favorite on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 16.5. The run line, meanwhile, sits at Duke -2.5 (-125).
Let's dive into our Murray State vs. Duke prediction and NCAA baseball picks for Monday, June 9.
Murray State vs Duke Prediction
- Murray State vs. Duke Pick: Duke -2.5 (-125)
My Duke vs. Murray State best bet is on the Blue Devils to cover the run line, with the best line currently available at DraftKings.
Murray State vs Duke Odds
| Murray State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 16.5 -115o / -115u | +195 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -125 | 16.5 -115o / -115u | -260 |
- Murray State vs Duke Moneyline: Murray State +195 · Duke -260
- Murray State vs Duke Over/Under: 16.5 Runs
- Murray State vs Duke Run Line: Duke -2.5 (-125) · Murray State +2.5 (-105)
Murray State vs Duke Pick, Best Bets
It all comes down to this for the Duke Blue Devils and the Murray State Racers. After Duke took Game 1 behind a strong pitching performance from Owen Proksch, the Racers bounced back with a 19-9 win yesterday to even the series.
However, yesterday's final score doesn't tell the entire story. Prior to the Racers' nine-run seventh inning, the Blue Devils had battled back in the sixth and were trailing only 10-8.
While Murray State's crooked number put the game away, the Blue Devils' lineup didn't quit, and the Racers may be wishing they saved some runs for tonight's matchup.
Despite pitching through an offensive barrage, the Blue Devils have two strong options to turn to on the mound in Henry Zatkowski and Andrew Healy. Both are candidates to start, and it's likely we'll see both as Duke could use two multi-inning arms.
Zatkowski should have success tonight. He's due for positive regression with his SIERA of 3.43 and WHIP of 1.28, which are much better indicators of how well he's pitched than his 4.85 ERA.
As for Healy, he's similarly due for a great deal of positive regression. He's been excellent over his last three outings, and his SIERA of 4.27 and xFIP of 5.73 are more telling than his ERA of 7.29.
On the other side of this matchup, the Racers are likely to turn to Kane Elmy.
Elmy pitched to a 4.28 ERA and held a 1.48 WHIP in 15 appearances this season. However, unlike the starting options for Duke, Elmy is due for regression as his xFIP of 5.93 and SIERA of 5.67 indicate.
This is also a big step up in competition for Elmy, as the Blue Devils are one of the most potent lineups in the country, ranking third in wRC+ and 16th in OPS.
We saw Elmy struggle in Regionals against an Ole Miss lineup that's powerful in its own right. The Rebels tagged Elmy for four runs in just 2 1/3 innings.
Behind Elmy, the Racers' bullpen is going to need multiple arms to step up. They deployed top reliever Graham Kelham for three innings to secure the win in Game 2. Statistically, there's a significant drop-off from Kelham and the rest of the arms in this bullpen.
Look for the Blue Devils to get off to a hot start at the plate against Elmy and pour it on against the Racers' bullpen. Take Duke to cover the run line as it punches its ticket to Omaha.
Pick: Duke -2.5 (-125)
