Welcome to the madness that is the NCAA Baseball Tournament.
On Day 1 of Regionals, 12 underdogs won outright, including four No. 4 seeds. Underdogs won 41.4% of matchups despite an average expected win rate of 24.2%. If you sprayed on plus-money ‘dogs, congratulations on your new boat.
Last year’s tournament actually started off pretty similarly. Day 1 featured underdogs taking 34.3% of games, a 7% overperformance beyond expectation (not quite so radical, but a surge of underdogs nonetheless).
Water did find its level, and favorites won at about expectation over the course of the entire tournament. Nine Regional hosts advanced, but of those nine, only one lost Game 1 (Oregon State, which, like UCLA, also lost to St. Mary’s).
So, I’d advise caution playing too heavily to back Florida State, Auburn, Southern Miss and UCLA.
Let’s dive into my NCAA baseball picks and college baseball predictions for the Regional games on Saturday, May 30..
NCAA Baseball Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network's Road to CFB is targeting from Saturday's slate of NCAA Baseball Tournament games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 6 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. | ||
Coastal Carolina vs Florida State Pick
In a shocking twist of events, this isn’t a winner’s bracket matchup in Tallahassee; this is between yesterday’s losers.
Florida State lost to St. John’s (a +375 underdog), while Coastal Carolina dropped a 22-run shootout to Northern Illinois. So, here we are: two of the best recent programs in an elimination game on Day 2.
Coastal’s loss marked its 10th defeat in its last 13 games. FSU’s loss was its third straight.
The Seminoles will throw ace Wes Mendes (2.83 ERA) against the Chanticleers' Cameron Flukey (4.35), who's back from injury.
Flukey suffered a rib injury that sidelined him for most of the season. He returned in late April, and his starts have been spotty. He gave up six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings against Georgia Southern but just one earned run in his last eight innings.
There’s also reasonable doubt for Mendes, who has given up 16 earned runs over his last five starts; he has also struck out 36 over that stretch.
I actually like the trajectory of Flukey over Mendes, and Coastal’s last four losses all came by just one run.
We’ll try to sneak this matchup in between thunderstorms — that’s been the theme of just about every Southeastern Regional so far — but I like Coastal to survive and advance to play the loser of St. John’s and NIU.
I advise caution when betting those hosts that lost Game 1, and I’ll put my money behind those words here.
Pick: Coastal Carolina ML +140 (Play to +120)
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Southern Miss + Oregon State ML Parlay Pick
Like Tallahassee, it’s truly shocking that Southern Miss-Virginia is a Day 2 elimination game rather than one to secure a seat in the Regional final.
The Golden Eagles let Colby Allen sink, allowing five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings pitched, four of which were plated in the ninth inning with a 4-3 lead. Oops.
Grayden Harris (8-1, 3.20 ERA) gets the start in the loser-goes-home matchup at home, and that’s a start I like to get behind. Harris allowed more than two runs in a start just four times in 15 outings, and he hasn't done so since May 8.
He may not go seven innings, but he’s a rock-solid foundation, and Southern Miss barely touched its bullpen last night.
Virginia’s pitching is rough; the Hoos have given up 10-plus runs in four of their last five games, including 15 to Jacksonville State (106 wRC+) yesterday. This is a team out of gas.
On the other side of theis parlay, Oregon State should handle its business against Yale even though Dax Whitney isn’t walking out of that dugout anymore in 2026.
The Beavers’ pitching staff played a sound game, but the offense was stifled by Nick Lewis' two-run complete game (with only one strikeout… the field was busy). While not a fluky win by Washington State, it’s not really a repeatable outcome.
Oregon State was the lone Regional host last year to overcome a Game 1 loss and still make it to the College World Series.
We’ll be dodging storms in Hattiesburg, but Eugene looks to be gorgeous today.
Pick: Southern Miss + Oregon State ML Parlay (+116)
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Northern Illinois vs St. Johns Pick
We’ve got ourselves a "wrong team favored" alert!
Taking the aggregate of several college baseball power ratings (KPI, DSR, PEAR Ratings and more), St. John’s has a win expectancy of 56% (fair value: -127). Instead, Northern Illinois is the favored team.
The Johnnies just took down Florida State last night, 6-5, thanks to a huge eighth-inning push capped off by a ninth-inning RBI single from Jayder Raifstanger. Cue Parker Fleming’s American Psycho meme.
St. John’s needed only 3 2/3 innings from its bullpen, throwing Victor Frederick and closer Evan Hoeckele.
In comparison, NIU went to the pen after just 2 2/3 innings, throwing all three weekend starters and its top reliever. The Huskies would be foolish to throw any of them again, considering they have two losses to play with.
I like St. John’s position more here, and the ratings side with the No. 4 seed in this 3-4 matchup in Tallahassee.
Again, assuming it plays due to weather.
Pick: St. John's ML +105 (Play to-127)
