Iowa State vs. Baylor Odds & Betting Predictions - January 8, 2026

Milan Momcilovic under 17.5 pts (-120 B365, -125 MGM, -128 FD/CZR) MOM has been shooting lights out this year, making an insane 56.3% of his three pointers and 56.1% of his two pointers, both of which would be career highs by a ton (39.6% and 48.8% respectively as best in a season). His splits have also been heavily skewed toward shooting better at home (60.3% from 3, 60.6% from 2) vs. neutral/road (48.6% from 3, 50% from 2). That may be why MOM has 0.69 points per minute at home vs. 0.58 in neutral/road games. Well he's on the road here against Baylor who force teams to shoot from inside (only 32.9% of shots faced are from 3 compared to 39.8 nat'l avg...21st lowest), which MOM doesn't do as much (nearly a 2-1 ratio of shooting from 3 than 2). MOM also tends to shoot a bit less against top-100 location adjusted teams, so I expect his volume to be down a bit, especially from outside. Add in the likely shooting% regression, and I'm projecting just 15.5 points for MOM. Making this my first full unit prop of the season.

Tailing @nick_giffen

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