As we head down the home stretch of the college basketball regular season, the lines get tighter as teams’ power ratings have mostly stabilized. This is where situational handicapping really comes into play. I have five main situational angles that I look for: Hangover, letdown, sandwich, and what I like to call “Fat and Happy” and “Drop in Class.” I put full descriptions for each of those terms at the bottom of the piece.
This isn’t science: A good spot doesn’t necessarily mean the line has value. One must also consider other variables (coaching, injuries, matchups, etc), but it’s a good place to start.
Let’s dive into the seven situational spots I’m betting on Saturday. If you’re seeing this piece a little later on Saturday, don’t worry. I cover games being played at noon, 2, 6, 7:30, 8:15 and 10 p.m.
Spreads as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Providence at Butler (-7.5)
Potential letdown spot for Providence, which likely punched its NCAA Tournament ticket after beating No. 3 Villanova on Wednesday. On the other hand, Butler comes in with a three-game losing streak, which included a tough OT loss at home to Xavier and a road loss at Villanova. Those two games left it out of gas for Tuesday’s home loss to Georgetown (which was a drop in class spot). The ‘Dawgs are also looking for revenge after a 10-point loss in mid-January to the Friars.