Notre Dame (10 seed) held off Pitt (15 seed) 67-64 on Tuesday. The first-round matchup in the ACC Tournament was closer than the oddsmakers (and public) expected. The Irish opened as 16.5-point favorites and with 68% of spread dollars backing Notre Dame the line moved to -17.5.

Notre Dame found a way to win led by a senior Bonzie Colson (pictured above), who scored a game-high 19 points, yet the Irish failed to cover, burning casual bettors in the fourth-most bet game on Tuesday night. As you might expect, the public didn’t forget this transgression. Though the Irish were just a small 2.5-point favorite, the bets were about even evenly split in Wednesday night’s game against Virginia Tech.

 

It took a 50-point second half for the Irish to escape with a 71-65 victory, but this time, they covered the spread. Most squares didn’t cash a ticket. Why? Recreational gamblers have a tendency to let recency bias cloud their judgement.

If the public is going to lay off a team that won but failed to cover against the spread, then as contrarian bettors we should do the opposite. Here’s how you can take advantage on Thursday, using a  profitable system that applies to four conference tournament games (12 pm, 1 pm, 7 pm and 9:30 pm ET tips).

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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