Tuesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Loading Up on 10 Games
© Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
Sharp bettors had a profitable start to the week with their epic Virginia Tech cover. But, as always, wiseguys never rest on their laurels. New day, new opportunities. The grind never ends. As the greatest coach of all time once said: No Days Off.
After examining all the percentages and line movement for Tuesday’s 22-game slate, here are 10 college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on tonight. This piece covers games that start at 7 and 9 p.m.
For a full glossary betting of terms, plus the sides getting the highest percentage of tickets and money, check out the bottom of the article.
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET
St Joseph’s (+13.5) at Rhode Island
7 p.m. ET
Rhode Island is 23-4, ranked 17th overall, at home against an unranked opponent, and coming off a 25-point blowout win over Davidson. So of course 75% of public bettors have no problem laying a big spread with URI. However, sharps like St Joe’s to keep it close. Despite only getting 25% of bets, the Hawks have fallen from +14 to +13.5, indicating sharp reverse line movement and liability on the road dog. Earlier today, Wes Reynolds identified URI as a letdown/lookahead situational spot.
Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2)
7 p.m. ET
Missouri is 18-11, Vandy is 11-18 and the game opened at a pick’em. Mizzou all day, says the public. As always, if it looks too good to be true, it is. Sharp bettors hammered Vanderbilt as an early pick’em play at Greek and 5Dimes, and hit Vandy again at -1 (SBG). This trio of reverse line moves pushed the Commodores to -2. Vandy is also one of the top bet vs. dollar discrepancy plays tonight, as they’re only getting 36% of bets that account for 57% of dollars.
Florida (+1) at Alabama
7 p.m. ET
In one of the most heavily bet games of the night, nearly 60% of bets are laying the short spread with home favorite Alabama. However, sharps see value on the Gators. Florida is only getting 43% of bets but that accounts for 58% of dollars, indicating smart money is on the dog plus the points. Meanwhile, the line has fallen away from Alabama (-2.5 to -1) despite the fact that they’re getting a majority of bets, evidence of wiseguy reverse line movement on the Gators.
American (+6) at Lafayette, Under 139.5
7 p.m. ET
Sharps have taken a side on both the spread and total in this under the radar Patriot League showdown. Both teams have putrid records: American is 6-23 while Lafayette is 9-20. So naturally the public is taking the home favorite with the slightly better record. However, despite getting more than 70% of bets, Lafayette has fallen from -7 to -6. Sharps at SBG got down hard on American +7, causing market-wide reverse line movement. Wiseguys also crushed the under. They triggered a pair of steam and reverse line moves at Pinnacle (under 141) and hit it again at 5Dimes (under 140). Over/under bets are split 50/50, but 89% of dollars are on the under, a massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy.
Depaul (+9) at Creighton, Under 153.5
9 p.m. ET
Recreational bettors see 20-9 Creighton at home against 11-17 Depaul and have no problem laying the points. But sharps disagree. Early public betting pushed Creighton from +8.5 to +10. That’s when the wiseguys pounced on Depaul. They got down hard on the Blue Demons +10 at BetUS and CRIS, causing the line to fall back down to +9. Wes Reynolds sees a possible letdown spot for Creighton as well.
Meanwhile, wiseguys at 5Dimes also hammered the under (155). This is notable for two reasons. First, because more than 80% are taking the over but the line fell to 153.5. Second, 5Dimes is far and away your top NCAAB bet signal (+58.4 units). A $100 bettor would be up nearly $6000 playing every 5Dimes move this season.
Oklahoma (+3.5) at Baylor, Under 154.5
9 p.m. ET
Oklahoma is getting only 35% of bets but it accounts for 47% of dollars, indicating smart money on the road dog. Meanwhile, the line has moved toward the Sooners (+4 to +3.5) despite a majority of bets taking Baylor. Why would the books drop the line to give public Bears backers a better number? No, they’re not being nice. It’s because sharps got down on Oklahoma, creating liability. Wiseguys also like the under in this Big 12 showdown. More than 50% of bets are on the over, but a whopping 74% of dollars are on the under. Sharp bettors crushed under 157 at YouWager and under 156.5 at 5Dimes, causing a pair of steam and RLM plays that forced the market to fall to 154.5.
Davidson (+2) at St. Bonaventure
9 p.m. ET
In one of the most lopsided games of the night, 81% of bets are taking home favorite St. Bonaventure. Give average Joes a 21-6 team at home with a small spread and they’ll take it every time. Not the sharps. They’re taking the points, not laying them. Not only is Steph Curry’s alma-mater contrarian in a heavily bet game, but they’re getting all the smart money as well. Despite getting less than 20% of tickets, Davidson has moved from +3 to +2. This was caused by a pair of reverse line moves on Davidson +3 (SBG) and +2 (ABC).
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A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
Cover photo via Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Vanderbilt guard Payton Willis (1) and forward Jeff Roberson (11) celebrate an 81-80 win over Mississippi State earlier this season.