Big South Basketball Odds, Picks & Futures: 2023-24 NCAAB Betting Preview

The Big South saw founding member Campbell bolt for the CAA, reducing its membership from 10 teams to nine. This is a year after the Colonial stole Hampton and North Carolina A&T, taking away the Big South's North and South divisions.

The main reason to watch Big South basketball this year is Drew Pember, the nation's most dominant mid-major player. Behind him, UNC Asheville is my pick to win this thing.

That said, there are other angles. I think High Point and Gardner-Webb are sleepers. Winthrop will be fun again after falling off last year. And Presbyterian could make a jump after winning only one conference game last year.

I've power-rated this conference into four tiers. Let's talk about it.

Big South Regular Season NCAAB Conference Title Odds

Tier 1: Championship or Bust

I don't see one good reason why the Bulldogs shouldn’t be heavy favorites in the Big South market.

Every projection system has them as the best team in the conference (KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya). They have the most returning minutes in the conference (73.5%), bringing back four starters who spearheaded a 27-8 (16-2) championship campaign.

The Bulldogs also have the trump card in 6-foot-11 forward Drew Pember.

Pember is mid-majordum’s best player. He’s among the nation’s elite forwards. It’s impossible to encapsulate everything he does in a single article, but I’ll give it my best shot.

The former Tennessee transfer never got much run in Knoxville, but he’s been unstoppable in Asheville.

He averaged 21/9 last season on 46%/38%/84% splits.

He’s arguably the most versatile inside-out scoring big man I’ve ever seen. He attacks bigs off the bounce, scores in the low post, scores off the short roll, hits spot-up or off-the-dribble 3s and gets fouled like crazy.

In fact, he led the nation in free throws made (273) and attempted (326). Nobody can stop him, so they foul him instead. He hit 41 free throws during the team’s three-game Big South Tournament run, including 22-of-24 in the quarterfinal against Charleston Southern.

Pember scored 28-plus seven times last season. He scored 40-plus thrice. He dropped a program-record 48 on Presbyterian.

He combines all of this with elite interior defense. Pember averaged over two blocks per game, ranking in the 90th percentile of players in Hakeem rate (block rate plus steal rate) and the 97th percentile in personal foul efficiency (ratio of steals plus blocks to personal fouls). He alters shots without fouling.

Pember was the first player in Big South history to lead the league in scoring, rebounding and blocks in the same season. He was the Big South Player of the Year, the Big South Defensive Player of the Year, the Big South Player of the Week five times and the Big South Tournament MVP.

He’s the most dominant big man in the country outside of Zach Edey.

Surrounding Pember is an experienced backcourt led by Caleb Burgess and Fletcher Abee. The former led the league in assists, and the latter shot 42% from 3.

Head coach Mike Morrell also picked up two key transfers, Josh Banks from VCU and Greg Gantt from NC State. Both should significantly impact Asheville’s depth, which flailed at times last season and created these unbelievable Pember on-off splits.

I’d be surprised if either unseats Nick McMullen. The 6-foot-8 senior forward’s impact doesn’t appear in the metrics, but his interior physicality and “glue-guy” attitude were key in UNC Asheville leading the conference in defensive efficiency.

Between McMullen and Pember, UNCA held opponents to only 35 paint PPG (8th percentile) on 50.2% paint shooting (2nd percentile).

If there’s one question mark, it’s perimeter shooting.

The Bulldogs shot over 40% from 3 last year. Pinpoint perimeter shooting keeps opposing defenses from collapsing on Pember.

The departure of Tajion Jones is challenging, given he shot 44.3%. He averaged 15 points per game last season on his way to becoming the program’s all-time leading scorer.

Yet, this roster is more experienced and deeper than the one that went 16-2 in Big South play last year. And the Bulldogs still have Pember.

The Bulldogs shouldn’t be priced behind Winthrop. I think they’re mispriced, and I’d fire on the defending Big South champs to win the regular season title again.

The Play: UNC Asheville to Win Big South Regular Season Title (+190)

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Injuries crushed Winthrop last season — especially the one to Michael Anumba — and the lack of depth sank the Eagles in the Big South. Winthrop went 15-17 (10-8), dropping to fifth in the conference. The season unceremoniously ended with a conference-tournament first-round loss to Radford.

However, Anumba is back alongside four other returning starters, and the Eagles added key depth in the transfer portal.

Head coach Mark Prosser picked up New Hampshire’s Nick Johnson and Bucknell’s Alex Timmerman in the offseason. Both averaged over 10 points last season, and both should come off the bench.

Also, watch out for D-II transfer K.J. Doucet. He averaged 17/5 at Fort Valley State, and he’s a breakout candidate at the D-I level.

So, depth is no longer an issue in Rock Hill.

Neither is offense. The Eagles can score like crazy.

The backcourt tandem of Sin’Cere McMahon (13.4 PPG, 2.2 APG) and Kasen Harrison (11.5 PPG, 3.8 APG) spearhead an up-tempo, pick-and-roll spread offense that shoots the lights out (22nd nationally in 3-point rate, 13th nationally in 3-point shooting).

The shooting and spacing also allows Kelton Talford room to operate in the low post. He’s wild to watch, obliterating interior opponents with a high motor and various post moves. He plays a foot higher and 50 pounds heavier than his 6-foot-7, 195-pound frame.

Between the depth and offense, Winthrop is the clear other tier one team in the Big South.

Yet, I don’t think the defense will hold up.

Prosser blames last season's lousy defensive showing on injuries, and some of that is true. Getting Anumba back from injury is huge, as he’s the type of lockdown defender that makes the pack-line work.

But Winthrop finished 347th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 75 points per game. I don’t know how high the ceiling is. Even with better injury luck and transfer help, how much can you improve year-over-year?

Prosser’s pack line might not be that good. His 2022 team finished 222nd in Defensive Efficiency, and all three of his Western Carolina teams finished sub-250th in the metric.

Prosser is not as good of a defensive coach as Pat Kelsey, who put together elite defensive teams in Rock Hill (especially in 2017 and 2021), and is doing the same at Charleston.

We should be high on the Eagles, who have a conference-high 13 Big South Championship banners. But we can’t rank this team ahead of Asheville, which is elite on both sides of the ball.

So, it’s hard to justify Winthrop as the rightful favorite to win the conference at +180.

Tier 2: In the Mix

Radford will be in the mix again.

DaQuan Smith and Bryan Antoine are the conference’s best shooting duo, perfect for Darris Nichols’ motion scheme. The Highlanders love to run floppy action, pins and flare-downs for those guys.

Meanwhile, the Highlanders have plenty of switchability on defense, with several lengthy, athletic wings. Nichols uses his pieces to relentlessly attack opposing offenses with pressures and traps. They force turnovers and cut off the 3-point line.

So, Radford pairs a solid offense and a solid defense.

The Highlanders also have depth. Nichols rebuilt this team last season, importing 10 new scholarship players. Seven of those players return for a second year with the squad.

They’re super deep at guard. But they’re not deep in the frontcourt.

The frontcourt is a huge question mark. Radford has veteran Justin Archer returning, but he’s surrounded by three question-mark transfers, Josiah Harris (St. Francis Brooklyn), TJ Nesmith (Lenoir-Rhyne) and Chandler Turner (Bowling Green).

I think that sinks the Highlanders. Nichols’ aggressive perimeter defense leaves the team wide open for business on the interior. They ranked 304th in 2-point shooting allowed last year (52.9%).

How are you going to stop Talford or Pember like that?

I’m also thinking Radford is a tad overvalued. Nine of the Highlanders’ 12 conference wins last season came from a single streak in January. Otherwise, they were swept by Asheville and lost to Campbell in the conference championship game.

And it’s always tough to trust a team that never gets to the line. Radford was last in the Big South in free-throw rate last season.

Longwood lost a ton. The Lancers said goodbye to three transfers, five key contributors and over 50% of their minutes. They brought in eight new scholarship players to replace the production.

You’d have to think Griff Aldrich will plug and play. Not only is he an excellent head coach who’s turned around this program, but he’s also an elite game planner and schemer.

The Lancers run a lot of secondary actions, mostly creating catch-and-shoot 3s and short-roll stuff. Aldrich describes it as “creating advantages.”

As quoted in the CBB Almanac:

"You’re trying to find an advantage and put the other team in closeouts. That can come in any number of different ways, whether you’re driving the ball, playing out of a ball screen, playing out of the post.”

On defense, the Lancers attack relentlessly, turning turnovers into transition points. They led the conference in turnover rate (21.9%) and points off turnovers (15.2) last season. Aldridge coaches kids into the system, so the Lancers are usually near the Big South’s summit in Defensive Efficiency.

But replacing that much production will take time.

There’s lots of upside, especially if the new 7-foot center Szymon Zapala provides an interior boost alongside Xavier transfer Elijah Tucker. But I don’t see it happening overnight.

Longwood plays a relatively soft non-conference schedule, and there are plenty of spots where it'll be near-double-digit favorites. There should be some good spots to fade the still-gelling Lancers.

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Tier 3: Dark Horses

Gardner-Webb has the highest floor of any team.

Tim Craft consistently has his Runnin’ Bulldogs near the top of the league. His teams have never finished below .500 in conference play.

Last year, Gardner-Webb was second in the standings heading into the regular season’s final two weeks. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs dropped five straight to end the year, including a first-round conference tournament game.

But the 2023 Bulldogs return over 60% of their minutes and nine total players from last year’s roster. Five of those nine are entering year four or five of collegiate ball.

Continuity, experience and defense.

The latter point is where the high floor comes from. Craft runs a suffocating pack-line defense. The Bulldogs rebound, force turnovers and defend the basket. They finished third in the Big South in Defensive Efficiency last season and first the year before that.

In CBB Almanac’s Big South Coaches Poll, Gardner-Webb was voted the conference’s toughest team to prepare for. Craft has built a bully-ball team based on rock-solid defensive fundamentals.

Guard DQ Nicholas is an excellent on-ball defender at the point of attack. The Bulldogs lost some key shot blockers, but the new-ish big man duo of Ademide Badmus and Cheickna Sissoko are smart, agile defenders.

Every projection system has Gardner-Webb as the conference’s best defense this year. The floor remains high despite the frontcourt turnover.

I like buying good defensive teams with high floors.

The Bulldogs are also due for general positive regression, given they went 5-11 in one-score games last year and ranked 361st nationally in free-throw shooting (62.5%). I expect extra buckets from the charity stripe in late-game situations, resulting in more wins.

That said, the offense needs to improve. The Bulldogs collapse defenses and get to the rim, but they can’t shoot from deep, limiting their ceiling. They will play smaller this season, so perhaps that will help.

I'd buy Gardner-Webb if I could get slightly better odds than the +650 available at Caesars. I wouldn’t mind buying them early in the season as projected 20-point dogs against Arkansas or Baylor, given the defense can muck those games up.

I almost always look towards the Bulldogs as underdogs, anyway.

First-year head coach Alan Huss looks like a great hire. He was a Creighton assistant coach over the past six years, and you’ve all seen how the Bluejays have progressed.

He’s known as an offensive guru. He likes to push the pace while using action plays and ball screens to read and react to opposing defenses. Creighton has been excellent at doing all that.

And, as he told Blue Ribbon:

“The idea is to replicate what we did at Creighton.”

But Hess imported nine new players this offseason. So, who knows how this group will gel?

Hess brought in some fascinating pieces, including sharpshooters Duke Miles (Troy), Trae Benham (Lipscomb), and Dee Barnes (Southern Utah).

Miles is a veteran 6-foot-3 combo guard, and he’ll pair well with lone returning starter — Abdoulaye Thiam — in the backcourt. Thaim is also a half-decent shooter (35% from deep last season).

I’d also watch out for frontcourt transfers Pavlo Dziuba (Maryland), Cade Potter (Utah State) and Kimani Hamilton (Mississippi State). Hamilton was a former top-100 prospect.

For what it’s worth, Bart Torvik marks High Point with the second-highest Projected Effective Talent in the conference, only behind UNC Asheville.

The Panthers could explode if the high-upside talent slides effortlessly into Huss’ vision. They have an elite schemer, solid talent and shooting. KenPom, Bart Torvik and EvanMiya project High Point as the fourth-best offense in the Big South, so the Panthers could shoot their way into some wins this season.

Among long-shot candidates in the Big South, I’d take a shot with the Panthers at 10-to-1. They provide the type of high-variance outcome that’s alluring in potential long shots.

The Play: High Point Panthers to Win Big South Regular Season Title (+1000)

USC Upstate lost superstar guard Jordan Gainey in the portal (Tennesseee), but this roster has the nuts and bolts to be rock solid again.

Dave Dickerson has rebuilt this program and has found ways to adjust. Last year, it was by leaning into a more aggressive, better defense.

The Spartans leveraged their backcourt length by extending pressure to the 3-point line, moving the point of attack up the floor. They forced turnovers at a top-60 rate nationally and rocketed up to 189th in Defensive Efficiency — after ranking sub-300th in the prior four seasons.

There are several lengthy returning guards, including Trae Broadnax (6-foot-4), Justin Bailey (6-foot-3), Floyd Rideau Jr. (6-foot-5) and Nick Alves (6-foot-6). So, I’d expect more of the same.

But I have two major issues with the team.

First, I’m curious how the interior defense will hold up after USCU’s top two shot-blockers — Khydarius Smith and Seny N’Diaye — transferred. Blitzing on defense leaves you vulnerable on the inside, and not having that second level of defense could hurt this team.

Ahmir Langlais will have to step up.

Second, USC Upstate turned the ball over like crazy last season. So, although it finished third in the conference in eFG%, it finished ninth in Offensive Efficiency. Losing your All-Big South point guard can only hurt the turnover problem.

Dickerson has proved a capable coach who will keep his relatively experienced team towards the upper half of the conference, but I’m hesitant to put any cash behind the Spartans.

Tier 4: Bottom Dwellers

Presbyterian went 4-26 last year, including 1-17 in conference play.

The Blue Hose were also one of the nation’s unluckiest teams. ShotQuality projected they should’ve won 11 games based on the quality of shots taken and allowed. Five conference games could’ve gone the other way.

They’re due for positive shooting regression from every area of the court, especially on the interior (33 FG%, 41 SQFG%).

That team was cursed — on the court and from a roster construction perspective. Head coach Quinton Ferrell lost some transfers and senior big man Winston Hill to injury. The team ranked 335th nationally in experience.

Farrell turned the roster over, saying goodbye to seven players and bringing in eight new ones. However, he also retained four upperclassmen this year and nabbed four veterans in the portal.

This team will be more experienced, while seeing some general positive regression. I expect the Blue Hose to crawl out of the Big South gutter.

Unfortunately, the ceiling is capped.

Barclay Radebaugh is the longest-tenured coach in Big South history, entering his 19th year. He’s twice earned the Big South Coach of the Year award.

But the last few years have been brutal.

His program continues to get pounded by injuries and transfers.

This past offseason, Radebaugh lost seven players to the portal, including three double-digit scorers.

There’s an interesting mix of players, including three returning starters and six transfers. The Bucs are bigger overall and could showcase a decent interior offense behind Taje’ Kelly.

But there’s not much experience on this team.

The only Big South team less experienced is USCU. The Bucs returned only 44% of their possession minutes from last year.

On offense, the backcourt trio of RJ Johnson, A’lahn Sumler and DJ Patrick shot a combined 30% from the field last year.

On defense, Radebaugh’s compact man-to-man defense can’t stop a nosebleed.

Charleston Southern is projected to win four or five conference games this season. It also plays a brutal non-conference schedule that includes trips to NC State, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Loyola Chicago and North Carolina.

Good luck.

Big South Conference Futures Picks

• UNC Asheville to Win Big South Regular Season Title (+190)
• High Point to Win Big South Regular Season Title (+1000)
• Buy Gardner-Webb, particularly as underdogs
• Fade Longwood in the non-conference, particularly as favorites