BYU vs Baylor Odds, Pick

Here's BYU vs Baylor odds, pick.

The big narrative surrounding this game is that it is BYU’s first-ever Big 12 road game. And after the Cougars dropped their league home opener to Cincinnati this weekend, Tuesday is even more important to avoid an 0-2 start.

But a sneaky part of this matchup is that it is also Baylor’s first-ever Big 12 game in the Bears’ new arena.

After 25 years in the Ferrell Center, Baylor has moved into the brand-new Foster Pavilion. The Bears hosted Cornell there on Jan. 2, posting a 98-79 victory, but this showdown with the Cougars marks the arena’s debut as a Big 12 conference venue.

Does that affect the handicap? Perhaps slightly, as Baylor’s familiarity with its new digs may not match that of most home teams. But the head-to-head matchup nuances far outweigh the building in determining the correct wager.

BYU is an extremely curious test case as a basketball team. The Cougars have skyrocketed up predictive rankings by eviscerating inferior competition, going from 36th in KenPom’s preseason rankings to ninth now. They also sit fourth in the NET.

However, significant questions exist about the Cougars’ legitimacy against top-shelf competition.

Yes, this team can thrash even decent teams like Evansville and Wyoming by 30 to 40 points. BYU has pristine ball movement and an array of deadeye shooters, led by Jaxson Robinson and Trevin Knell. But BYU mightily struggled against Cincinnati in the Big 12 opener to create easy baskets. The Cougars attempted just 18 two-pointers and 10 free throws, instead launching 46 triples and banking on shot-making to carry them (narrator: it did not).

The Cougars hold wins over San Diego State at home, alongside NC State and Arizona State on neutral floors. But the gauntlet of the Big 12 and its collection of tremendous coaches and athletes could expose BYU as an analytics darling.

Additionally, this is just BYU’s second road game of the season and the first that requires more travel than a quick bus ride to Salt Lake City. Notably, the Cougars fell at Utah in that game, though they competed much more favorably than in the home loss to Cincinnati.

Crucially for BYU, burly forward/center Fousseyni Traore is back from a hamstring injury that kept him out for seven games. He was a minimal contributor against Cincinnati as he got back up to speed, but in BYU’s biggest win of the year (SDSU), he tallied 12 points, eight rebounds, four assists and a block. His physicality will be vital against Big 12 frontcourts.

In Waco, there may be a new cast of characters from last year, but the theme remains the same: a volcanic offense led by a bevy of scoring guards and wings. Unfortunately, that offense is again paired with a shaky defense that struggles to make life difficult for its opponents.

Scott Drew has evolved into an offensive savant, rolling out a top-10 KenPom offense for four consecutive campaigns. Transfer RayJ Dennis, freshman Ja’Kobe Walter and veteran Jalen Bridges can all go off on any night, and Langston Love and Jayden Nunn make it five rotation players shooting above 40% from beyond the arc.

Dennis, in particular, is a tough matchup. He is a 6-2 bully, driving through (or even posting up on) opposing guards and using his dazzling passing vision to find open options when defenses pay him too much attention.

The Bears go as their offense goes. Their two losses so far – against Duke and Michigan State – came in their least efficient scoring performances of the season.

Drew would surely prefer to be better defensively. His national championship squad in 2021 was a nightmare to play against, led by heavy ball pressure and versatility all over the court.

In theory, bouncy freshman center Yves Missi should be a cure-all on that end. He is a mobile 7-footer and a human eraser at the rim.

Unfortunately, the perimeter players have struggled to keep opponents in front. Drew emphasizes running opponents off the three-point arc, which has led to straight-line drives and Missi foul trouble. That may be less of an issue against BYU, though, as the Cougars do not put much pressure on the rim via the bounce.

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BYU’s massive winning margins in the non-conference – by 47 over Houston Christian, 57 over Southeastern Louisiana, 43 over Morgan State, etc. – have made it a polarizing team. Should those demolitions be encouraged via the NET and other ranking sites? Do they prove BYU is a top-ten team?

I am of a split mind here. While I think BYU is a legitimate NCAA Tournament and top-25 team, the Cougars have overinflated their value at this point in the campaign. The market is on board with this notion: KenPom makes this game Baylor -1, BartTorvik has it at Baylor -0.7, but the betting line is Baylor -3.5.

Is that enough of a correction? I say not quite when combined with BYU’s first Big 12 road trip. The Bears’ athleticism in the backcourt will be difficult for BYU to handle, and the Cougars can’t fully take advantage of Baylor’s weakness in defending dribble drives.

I’m betting on Baylor to make it 2-0 in the shiny new Foster Pavilion – both straight up and against the spread.

Pick: Baylor -2.5 | bet to Baylor -4

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