The Texas Longhorns play the BYU Cougars in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament from Portland, Oregon. Tip-off is set for 7:25 p.m. ET on TBS.
BYU is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -137. Meanwhile, Texas is the underdog at +2.5 with a moneyline of +114. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. BYU prediction and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
Texas vs BYU Prediction
My Pick: BYU -2.5
My Texas vs BYU best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs BYU Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -122 | 157.5 -115o / -105u | +114 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +100 | 157.5 -115o / -105u | -137 |
- Texas vs BYU spread: BYU -2.5
- Texas vs BYU over/under: 157.5 points
- Texas vs BYU moneyline: Texas +114, BYU -137
Texas vs BYU College Basketball Betting Preview
Texas snagged a tight win over NC State to advance to the main bracket and face the No. 6 seed BYU
The thing the Longhorns do almost better than anyone is draw fouls, as they run a 46% free throw rate. But that’s an area BYU does well to avoid, sending teams to the line just 28% of the time.
7-footer Matas Vokietaitis is the main culprit of the fouls. He ranks third nationally in free-throw rate and fouls drawn per 40 minutes.
That said, I don't have much faith in Texas on offense.
It doesn't have a point guard, as evidenced by its 43% assist rate (348th nationally). Most of the shots are dumping it to Vokietaitis, tough mid-range 2s by Tramon Mark, or Dailyn Swain's iso drives.
If the Longhorns can't get to the foul line or crash the offensive glass, they’re in trouble.
On the defensive end, Texas really struggles to keep teams off the foul line, ranking outside the top-300 in free-throw rate allowed. It can get a bit too handsy on contests, and BYU star AJ Dybantsa should use that to his advantage — he ranks 15th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes.
The Cougars clearly aren't as good without Richie Saunders. Since he went down, BYU ranks 45th nationally in Torvik’s efficiency ratings, compared to 33rd on the season. Dybantsa has to take way more shots now, as does point guard Rob Wright. It almost feels like a must for Wright and Dybantsa to combine for 50-plus points for the Cougars to win tournament games.
But I'm here to give you some optimism about this matchup for BYU.
In the nine games without Saunders, BYU ranks 25th nationally in offensive efficiency and 119th in defensive efficiency.
The good is that the Cougars are still a strong offense, despite shooting just 32% from 3. That's not a shocker. Saunders is a sniper, and nobody can replicate that. Aleksej Kostic is playing a solid role, but he's no Saunders.
So, how can BYU fix the defensive issues?
I feel like some of it correlates to variance, as teams are shooting a jarring 41% from 3 against them across those nine games. UCF going 14-for-24 from 3 hurt the overall numbers, but matchup-wise, Texas can't exploit BYU's defensive issues as others can.
The Longhorns don't have much shooting. Camden Heide is a driller, having shot 45% on 98 attempts from deep. Outside of him, the occasional hot-shooting night from Jordan Pope can carry them, but Swain and Mark are players BYU will dare to shoot. Swain makes less than one 3-pointer per game, while Mark is just a 32% shooter from deep.
The line is sitting at BYU -2.5, and I'm taking the favorite.
The Cougars will have the best player on the floor in Dybantsa, and their defense is better than it's performed of late.
Texas is like a fish out of water offensively when it isn't drawing fouls, and BYU should be able to avoid fouling them.
That makes me feel good about backing a Cougars team that looked like a corpse three weeks ago, losing in uncompetitive fashion to UCF, Cincinnati, and WVU. But they ended their pre-March Madness season with three straight wins (Texas Tech, Kansas State, West Virginia) before a narrow loss to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament.
My Pick: BYU -2.5
