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College Basketball Best Bets: NCAAB Picks, Predictions for Thursday, November 20

College Basketball Best Bets: NCAAB Picks, Predictions for Thursday, November 20 article feature image
5 min read
Credit:

Stu Boyd II-The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images. Pictured: Josh Pastner (UNLV)

Early-season tournaments begin on Thursday, as the Baha Mar Championship, Boardwalk Battle and Hall of Fame Classic get set to tip off.

With that in mind, we're helping you gather some best bets for your NCAAB betting card, even if they don't come in those events.

So, read below for college basketball best bets, including NCAAB picks and predictions for Thursday, November 20.


College Basketball Best Bets

GameTime (ET)Pick
New Mexico Lobos LogoNebraska Cornhuskers Logo
7 p.m.
Colgate Raiders LogoCornell Big Red Logo
7 p.m.
Saint Joseph's Hawks LogoUNLV Runnin' Rebels Logo
10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

New Mexico vs. Nebraska

New Mexico Lobos Logo
Thursday, Nov. 20
7 p.m. ET
Peacock
Nebraska Cornhuskers Logo
Nebraska -7.5
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

By Sean Paul

Eric Olen will keep New Mexico in the running to win the Mountain West for years to come.

I'm not buying that the Lobos are on that level yet, though.

In this matchup, I think Nebraska has a huge edge in the turnover department. New Mexico is going to amp up the defensive pressure to force turnovers, and the Huskers sport a dazzling 12% turnover rate.

The Huskers' steady backcourt tandem of the mistake-free Sam Hoiberg and sharpshooter Jamarques Lawrence should do well against New Mexico's pressure.

Thus, I feel comfortable backing Nebraska up to -10 in a neutral site game in Missouri as part of the Hall of Fame Classic.

The Cornhuskers have a defined style with more talent than the Lobos.

It's going to take a younger New Mexico squad time to find its footing, and Nebraska should settle in nicely if it's not turning it over.

Pick: Nebraska -7.5 (Play to -10)

Read the article below to get Sean's full preview on this Hall of Fame Classic matchup:

New Mexico vs Nebraska Predictions, Picks, Odds for Thursday, November 20 Image

Colgate vs. Cornell

Colgate Raiders Logo
Thursday, Nov. 20
7 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Cornell Big Red Logo
Over 161.5
BetMGM Logo

By Tanner McGrath

Both these teams have borderline-severe defensive issues.

For the Big Red, their extended pressure scheme lacks sufficient rim protection.

Colgate runs a methodical ball-screen and post-up offense. While Cornell likely can hedge and pressure the ball out of Jalen Cox’s hands, Colgate is still a half-decent press offense (.92 PPP, 55th percentile).

And that might not matter given Sam Wright and Andrew Alekseyenko could get everything on the block against the Big Red’s porous post-up defense (1.24 PPP allowed, sixth percentile; 7.3 possessions per game allowed, 21st-highest mark nationally).

For the Raiders, they lost their best big man and top defensive assistant in the offseason, and that’s shown through four games (.97 PPP allowed, 17th percentile).

Colgate has allowed a boatload of catch-and-shoot jumpers this season (24 per game, 30th-most nationally), and that’s a problem against Cornell’s offense that feeds off of inside-out and dribble hand-off, catch-and-shoot actions (31 per game, third-most nationally; 15 unguarded, 14th-most nationally).

Under Jon Jaques, Cornell’s offense is elite. The roster is filled with elite shooters — Cooper Noard and Adam Hinton chief among them — and the Big Red leverage that spacing to consistently create wide-open interior baskets. Cornell ranks 35th in effective field goal percentage for a reason (58%).

At the same time, Cornell’s defense is lousy, ranking sub-300th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Matt Langel and the Raiders will punish the Big Red on that end.

The Big Red also consistently push the pace, ranking in the top-15 nationally in adjusted tempo. I’m a bit worried that Cornell won’t be able to speed up Colgate’s plodding style, but both teams should score efficiently either way.

Pick: Over 161.5 (Play to 163)

Click below to get Tanner's full daily college basketball projections and power ratings:


Saint Joe's vs. UNLV

Saint Joseph's Hawks Logo
Thursday, Nov. 20
10 p.m. ET
Mountain West Network
UNLV Runnin' Rebels Logo
1H Under 78
bet365 Logo

By Evan Abrams

Saint Joseph's travels to UNLV on Thursday to take on the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack Center in Vegas.

Both of these squads are breaking in new head coaches this season; Steve Donahue took over for the Hawks when Billy Lange stepped down, and Josh Pastner was hired by the Rebels after the program moved on from Kevin Kruger.

The two squads are off to slow starts, as the Hawks have dropped two straight games to Virginia Tech and Penn, while the Rebels fell in buy games to UT Martin and Montana.

UNLV's defense is a major issue — giving up 86 points to UT Martin and 102 to Montana — which is one of the reasons this total is high.

But, despite that, I have a system that says the first-half under is the way to bet this game.

In fact, this system — "1H Under with High Total, Early Season" — has a superb all-time return on investment (ROI) of 10% and a 22% ROI for this season alone.

In early-season college basketball games played in November, December or January, high first-half totals (like this game) often overestimate offensive efficiency and game rhythm.

Teams are still developing chemistry, rotations are unsettled and shooting consistency tends to lag behind midseason form.

When the home team is underperforming and listed as a favorite of 10 or less, the pace can slow even more as it focuses on execution and limiting mistakes.

Oddsmakers continue to post inflated numbers based on team reputation and projected tempo, but early-season realities produce slower starts and lower-scoring halves.

Betting the first-half under in these situations takes advantage of inflated expectations before teams find their offensive rhythm later in the year (this can happen when teams are breaking in new head coaches).

NCAAB Icon
Evan Abrams – 1H Under with High Total, Early Season
the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season
betting on the Under
the home team's win percentage is between 0% and 50%
the o/u % is between 42% and 100%
the game spread is between -100 and 0
the closing total is between 73 and 1000
the game was played in January or December or November
$5,207
WON
313-227-4
RECORD
58%
WIN%

Pick: 1H Under 78

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