Thursday’s College Basketball Best Bets

Only two ranked teams are in action in college basketball tonight (No. 8 Arizona and No. 20 FAU), but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value to be had in the sport.

In fact, here's our college basketball best bets and odds, including our staff's five top picks for Thursday, February 8.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Patrick Strollo

I like heading to the MAAC tonight for the I-87 rivalry between the Marist Red Foxes (11-9, 6-5) and the Siena Saints (3-19, 2-9). This will be the second meeting of the season between the two programs after Marist stole the first meeting on its home court, 50-48.

Normally, I'm not keen on laying chalk in favor of an away team in conference play, but I think tonight’s game is worth the risk.

What's piqued my interest here is the discrepancy between the quality of the two defenses. In particular, the efficiency of Marist relative to the Siena offense.

The Red Foxes are the second-most efficient defense in the MAAC and the 99th-ranked unit in the nation, allowing 101.9 points per 100 possessions. Marist plays a physical type of defense and it excels in shot defense. It ranks first in defensive field goal percentage (48.1%) in the MAAC and 66th in the nation.

Even though Marist is on the road, I like how this defense matches up against the Siena offense. Season to date, Siena has been one of the worst offenses in the nation, ranking 358th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, 358th in 3-point field goal percentage (26.7%) and 361st in turnover percentage (24.5%).

The most important angle for this bet is the Siena turnover issues, especially as it faces a Marist squad that ranks 20th in the nation in defensive turnover rate with a 21.7% average.

Also, I think the technicals are worth noting here, as both teams are on opposite poles when it comes to ATS performance. So far this season, Marist is 12-8 (60%) against the closing line, whereas Siena is just 8-14 (36.4%) against the line.

As long as Marist can shoot at or around its season average — especially from 3-point range, where it's been quite good — I think the Red Foxes' defense should be more than capable of limiting the Siena offense.

My model is projecting Marist as 5.5-point favorites, and I recommend laying the chalk at 3.5 in this game. If 3.5 isn’t available, I would be ok with going to 4, but anything north of that would be a pass for me.

Pick: Marist -3.5 (Play to -4)

By Matt Gannon

Two teams near the top of the CAA standings meet up in Towson this evening. The Blue Hens will take the short trip down I-95 to try and hold off the Tigers from the top of the standings. Towson and Delaware always play great games and have became a fun CAA rivalry to keep an eye on.

Delaware has won its last two games, and its last loss came against none other than Towson on January 27. That was an 11-point margin in which the Tigers controlled from the jump.

Delaware will surely be looking for revenge in this matchup, but Towson will have something to stay about that.

Towson has yet to lose a CAA game at home this season, and that will continue tonight. The two teams match up fairly well against one another, but Towson has the real edge is second-chance points. The Tigers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country.

In a game with a spread this short, second-chance points are extremely important, and I trust the Tigers to fight on the boards and defend their home court.

Ride with the home team here.

Pick: Towson -3.5 (Play to -4)

By Tanner McGrath

New Hampshire pulled off an AmEast stunner on Saturday, blowing out UMass Lowell on the road by 16.

That same afternoon, Bryant posted an uncharacteristic loss to Maine after blowing a second-half lead.

Funny enough, both upset results significantly helped Vermont retain its stranglehold atop the conference.

Anyway, I’m excited to buy low on Bryant in a bounce-back spot and sell high on New Hampshire in a letdown spot, especially on the Wildcats’ second consecutive road game.

Sure, the Wildcats win on Saturday was impressive, but it took a 14-for-27 (52%) 3-point shooting performance to get there. I’m looking to target them for some game-to-game negative shooting regression.

Meanwhile, I’m targeting Bryant for some more general positive shooting regression. The Bulldogs are shooting less than 30% from 3 in AmEast play, but ShotQuality projects they should be shooting closer to 34% based on the “quality” of shots taken.

That tracks. Sherif Gross-Bullock and Doug Edert are still canning shots, but Connor Withers and Rafael Pinzon are better long-ball shooters than their conference splits – Withers is shooting 33%, while Pinzon is shooting 24%.

Among AmEast squads during league play, Bryant ranks second in ShotQuality’s Shot Selection metric and first in Open 3 Rate. More are bound to fall.

And more shots should fall against a New Hampshire defense getting crazy lucky on defense. Conference opponents are shooting only 27% from 3, yet the Wildcats rank sixth in Open 3 Rate Allowed, so SQ projects opponents should be shooting closer to 34%.

I.e., Bryant is undervalued, and New Hampshire is overvalued.

But even if 3-point shooting regression doesn’t come, I still like Bryant in this matchup.

A few weeks ago, Bryant walked into Durham to face New Hampshire on its home court and walked out with a 15-point win.

These teams play similarly. Both love to run the floor in transition and score on the interior, although Bryant is more of a classic downhill rim-running team, while New Hampshire mainly funnels offense through AmEast POY candidate Clarence Daniels in the post.

The difference is that Bryant is a far more efficient transition offense (1.18 PPP to 1.00) that scores more in the paint (35 paint points per game to 31), and the Bulldogs are the better transition (.89 PPP allowed to .95) and interior (33 paint points per game allowed to 37) defense.

In fact, Bryant is a devastating defensive team. First-year head coach Phil Martelli Jr. took over for Jared Grasso in the offseason, transforming Bryant’s formerly passive zone defense into a more energetic man-to-man.

Martelli is leveraging his wildly athletic roster to create an interior defense that blocks every shot – the Bulldogs lead the AmEast in block rate (15%) and rank second in 2-point shooting allowed (45%).

You also can’t post-up against Bryant (.79 PPP allowed, 71st percentile), so the Bulldogs can contain Daniels.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire’s interior defense is essentially non-existent. Jaxson Baker and Trey Woodyard are talented complementary frontcourt pieces on offense but literal turnstiles on defense.

As a result, the Wildcats rank seventh in the conference in 2-point defense (54%) during league play and are among the nation’s worst post-up defenses (1.09 PPP allowed, 360th).

That’s trouble against the Bulldogs’ talented and skilled downhill drivers.

In the last meeting between these two, Bryant scored 46 paint points on 26-for-39 shooting from 2-point range (67%), 12 points on 12 post-up possessions (1.00 PPP) and eight points on four roll-man sets (2.00 PPP).

Daniel Rivera, Earl Timberlake, Withers and Pinzon scored a combined 63 points while shooting 23-of-32 (71%) on the interior.

The Wildcats managed a fine 31 paint points and Daniels scored 18 in total, but the active and athletic Bulldogs also picked off the 22-point-per-game scorer four times while adding four total blocks and holding the Wildcats to eight points on 15 post-up sets (.53 PPP).

And, ultimately, New Hampshire couldn’t score enough to compensate for its porous interior defense.

It’s just a tough matchup for UNH.

I expect the Bulldogs to obliterate the Wildcats at the rim, cruising to a big home win in a classic bounce-back spot. New Hampshire is primed for a letdown, and if it can’t compete with Bryant in Durham, it won’t stand a chance in Smithfield against a surprisingly frisky and passionate Bulldog fanbase.

I’d make this line closer to eight than five, so I’d lay seven or better.

Pick: Bryant -5 (Play to -7)

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By D.J. James

St. Thomas is one of the slowest-paced teams in college basketball and plays host to the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles on Thursday, who aren't the unit they were with Max Abmas around.

St. Thomas is 13-8 on unders, so the Tommies' slow pace may be underestimated by the market.

The Tommies shoot a ton of 3s. They rank in the top 10 in 3-point attempt rate, so this is the one hang up on the under, especially since ORU is not the best defensive team on the perimeter.

That said, per ShotQuality, the Tommies rank 305th in 3-point efficiency. They also rank 268th in Open 3 Rate, so they'll get opportunities, but they may shoot themselves in the foot.

On the other bench, the Golden Eagles can only really shoot 3s. They're hitting less than 49% of 2s, so the Tommies need to defend the arc. St. Thomas ranks within the top 75 in Open 3 Rate, so more often than not, it should lock down the deep ball.

The kicker in this game — when it comes to tempo — will be that both teams average at least 17.7 seconds per possession defensively. Neither team turns the ball over much either, so a majority of the game should be played in the half court.

Neither team is particularly strong on the glass, but St. Thomas can crash on defense, which will limit the Eagles to one shot on most possessions.

With this being the case, the under should be in play to 142.

Pick: Under 144 (Play to 142)

By John Feltman

It's hard to have faith in the Arizona Wildcats at the moment. Despite their high ranking on KenPom, there's just something off about this team.

While they blew out the Utes in the last game the two played, I have a feeling things will be different this time around. The Utes lost to Arizona 92-73, but the score was deceptive.

The Wildcats shot an impressive 10-of-18 from beyond the arc, but I doubt they'll have that kind of shooting performance tonight. The Utes, on the other hand, were 10-of-35 from 3, despite shooting 38% from long range as a team this season.

The key player to watch in this matchup is Branden Carlson. The seven-footer is a force to be reckoned with — both inside and outside — and could give the Cats some trouble. Oumar Ballo will likely have to leave the paint to guard him on the perimeter, which is a huge problem for Tommy Lloyd's bunch.

While I'm worried about Utah's defense, its offense should have a strong showing. This game means more to the Utes than it does to Arizona, and the Utes will be looking for revenge after their previous loss to the Cats.

Although both teams are coming off wins, I think the market is overestimating Arizona's chances. I trust the Utes to put on a big offensive performance at home and will happily back them, especially since KenPom has this game at Arizona -4.

Pick: Utah +5.5 (Play to +3.5)