College Basketball National Championship Odds: The Six Teams to Know for Betting Futures

College Basketball National Championship Odds: The Six Teams to Know for Betting Futures article feature image
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Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: UCLA’s Tyger Campbell.

Action Network's Ryan Collinsworth has found the winning formula.

Over the past three NCAA Tournaments, Collinsworth has developed criteria to identify tournament teams with a legitimate shot at winning the National Championship.

He identifies teams that meet three criteria based on data from Ken Pomeroy.

  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) of 113.9 or higher.
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) of 96.2 or lower.
  • Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) of 23.83 or higher.

Each year, he lists the teams that meet the criteria and in each of the past three years it has included the team that went on to win the NCAA Tournament.

Here are the six teams Collinsworth has identified this year and their various odds to win the National Championship.

Houston

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.4 (11th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 89.6 (4th)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin:  28.82 (1st)

DraftKings Odds: +450

FanDuel Odds: +500

Caesars Odds: +500

BetMGM Odds: +500

BetRivers Odds: +450

UCLA

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.9 (22nd)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 87.2 (1st)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin:  27.63 (2nd)

DraftKings Odds: +1000

FanDuel Odds: +1200

Caesars Odds: +1200

BetMGM Odds: +1200

BetRivers Odds: +1300

Alabama

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.1 (19th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 88.6 (3rd)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin:  27.54 (3rd)

DraftKings Odds: +650

FanDuel Odds: +750

Caesars Odds: +700

BetMGM Odds: +700

BetRivers Odds: +600

UConn

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.4 (6th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 94.1 (18th)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin:  25.37 (4th)

DraftKings Odds: +1800

FanDuel Odds: +2100

Caesars Odds: +1500

BetMGM Odds: +1600

BetRivers Odds: +2300

Texas

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 116.6 (18th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 92.0 (11th)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin:  24.57 (6th)

DraftKings Odds: +1400

FanDuel Odds: +1500

Caesars Odds: +1500

BetMGM Odds: +1600

BetRivers Odds: +2100

Purdue

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 119.4 (7th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 94.8 (26th)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin:  24.55 (7th)

DraftKings Odds: +1100

FanDuel Odds: +1200

Caesars Odds: +1000

BetMGM Odds: +1100

BetRivers Odds: +1300

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Nick Sterling
Jul 14, 2024 UTC