NCAAB Odds, Pick for Mississippi State vs Rutgers

Below, we have NCAAB odds and a pick for Mississippi State vs Rutgers.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and Mississippi State Bulldogs battle at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday in what is sure to be a rock fight between two elite defensive programs.

Not only are both teams elite defensively, but they're also inefficient and slow-paced offensively.

I think the Bulldogs win in a tight clash, but the better bet here is on the under, considering how inconsistent these two are shooting the rock.

The Bulldogs rank 12th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. They also average 18 seconds per possession offensively and rank 170th in Adjusted Tempo.

The Bulldogs haven't shot well from 3, hitting only 31% of their long balls, which is good for 260th nationally. They're also 50th in 3-point attempt rate, even though they're shooting 55% from inside the perimeter.

They continue to take the wrong shots.

Moreover, Mississippi State ranks 273rd nationally in Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality. The Bulldogs also rank 86th in Rim-and-3 Rate, so the green light is there. Still, they don't take enough quality interior shots, which shouldn't be an issue for the Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers ranks 62nd in Open 3 Rate Allowed and 135th in Rim-and-3 Rate Allowed. Plus, Cliff Omoruyi is among the nation's best post defenders, the antidote to any interior attack.

The Bulldogs also turn the ball over too much, ranking 190th nationally in turnover rate. Meanwhile, Rutgers is eighth in defensive turnover rate.

That said, Rutgers ranks 175th in transition PPP, so even if the Knights force turnovers, they probably won't turn defense into offense.

The Scarlet Knights rank 235th in Adjusted Tempo, averaging 19.3 seconds per possession on defense.

Although Mississippi State may turn the ball over, Rutgers may stall the clock enough throughout the game, so transition buckets won't have as much of an impact on the total.

Rutgers sometimes struggles with turnovers, ranking 94th in turnover rate. But Mississippi State only ranks 102nd in turnover rate forced.

Although, the Bulldogs rank top-50 in transition PPP, so they could generate some quick-strike buckets off turnovers.

That said, the Scarlet Knights can't score. They rank 185th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 275th in eFG%. They're shooting only 31.8% from deep, 46.6% from inside the arc and 64.2% from the charity stripe.

Rutgers gets to the foul line plenty, ranking 56th in free-throw rate, but it doesn't matter if you can't cash them in.

The Knights struggle on the glass, ranking 136th in offensive rebounding rate and 315th in defensive rebounding rate. The Bulldogs can take advantage, ranking in the top-50 in both marks, so they could generate second-chance buckets on Saturday.

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Mississippi State is the better of these two teams. It has a slightly better offense and a comparable defense.

On the other hand, both teams play slow enough and have enough defensive firepower to stop the opposition.

Yes, both teams turn the ball over often, and the Bulldogs are better on the glass, but aside from these discrepancies, there shouldn't be any other hindrances to the under.

This game should be a defensive battle, so I'm happy betting on the under at 128 or better.

Pick: Under 129.5 (Play to 128)

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