Northwestern vs Nebraska Odds, Pick for Saturday

The Northwestern Wildcats and Nebraska Cornhuskers have one thing in common that no one else has been able to do: beat Purdue.

Northwestern took the Boilermakers down first in the early part of the season, while Nebraska trounced Purdue at home a little more than a week ago. These two giant-killers are both poised to make the NCAA tournament.

Both of these teams play solid defense. Yes, each has issues guarding the arc at times, but otherwise, defense should reign supreme in this one.

Northwestern is one of the slowest-paced teams in college hoops. The Wildcats average over 18 seconds on both offense and defense.

Northwestern is able to dictate the pace in games because it turns the ball over infrequently. Nebraska is the same way. Even though Northwestern turns opponents over often, it shouldn't force as many against a team that can play solid half-court basketball.

The Wildcats are more efficient beyond the arc than inside, but they're about equal with point distribution. If they're going to score in this game, it would likely come from outside the perimeter, as Nebraska allows many 3s and has opponents shooting almost 33% from deep on them.

Boo Buie, Ryan Langborg and Ty Berry are the deep threats for the Cats. However, if one of these players is shut down in any capacity, Northwestern tends to revert to “get the ball to Buie” on offense. Nebraska essentially needs to take one of these three out of the equation.

Northwestern has struggled on the interior, as it ranks 284th in offensive rebounding and 172nd defensively. Luckily for the Wildcats, the Cornhuskers rank 139th and 210th in offensive and defensive rebounding, respectively.

This would infer that much of the game will played in the half court and thus, at Northwestern’s preferred slow pace.

Nebraska is slightly quicker than average, and this is due to averaging 16 seconds per possession on offense. On the other end of the floor, though, the Cornhuskers average 18.4 seconds per possession, which is the exact same as Northwestern.

Simply put, the defense could control the tempo.

Nebraska does shoot way more 3s than the Wildcats do, though. The Cornhuskers hit almost 35% of their 3s and rank in the top 30 in 3-point attempt rate.

Northwestern, like Nebraska, gives up 3-point attempts constantly, and opponents are shooting over 35% on the Wildcats on the year. They rank 134th in Open 3 Rate defensively, but Nebraska ranks 299th on offense. If anything, this should indicate that Northwestern can close out on Nebraska beyond the arc.

In addition, Nebraska is better on off-the-dribble 3s, while Northwestern is actually better at defending these over catch-and-shoot 3s. When it comes down to it, Nebraska still needs to take efficient deep shots to beat NU from 3-point range.

Inside the arc, Nebraska is efficient at around 53%. Overall, Northwestern ranks in the top 55 of the NCAA in Rim and 3 Rate. Even inside, Northwestern usually makes opponents take inefficient shots.

Nebraska does the same on defense. In fact, the Huskers rank 29th in Rim and 3 Rate on defense and 143rd on offense.

Juwan Gary being questionable or out would further hurt Nebraska's offense both inside and out.

Neither of these giant-killers can rebound. Both Northwestern and Nebraska like to slow other teams down on defense, and both are much more efficient on the defensive end than on offensively.

Sure, if each team is knocking down 3s the entire time, this can fly over. But given how both teams also rarely turn the ball over, the under should be in play with this game being played in the half court.

Bet this under to 142.

Pick: Under 145 (Play to 142)

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