BYU vs UCF Odds, Pick for Saturday

Below, we have BYU vs UCF odds and a pick for Saturday.

BYU began the season as one of the hottest and biggest surprises in the entire country — until the start of Big 12 play brought it back down to earth.

The underlying metrics for Mark Pope's Cougars always suggested there was some regression coming given their unsustainable 3-point shooting splits, but an 11-point loss to Cincinnati and a nine-point loss to Baylor serve as a reality check for BYU's previous top-five aspirations.

UCF just picked up the biggest win of its season in its first-ever Big 12 home game, taking down the top dog in the conference historically. The Knights rode a massive second-half surge to beat Kansas by five on Wednesday, and it leaves them in a prime letdown spot off that victory.

The Cougars are a great buy-low team here off those last two losses, given that UCF didn't have a top-100 win prior to Kansas and the roster still has a relatively low ceiling comparatively.

BYU has some of the best ball movement and the best jump-shooting in the entire country in Pope's system.

The Cougars move the ball constantly and generate elite open 3s, and thus far, the Cougars have knocked them down at an elite rate. BYU ranks inside the top five in both assist-to-field-goal-made rate and 3-point attempt rate.

This approach makes BYU a bit of a high-variance team, but it runs so fast in transition and doesn't rely on just one or two players to make 3s. The Cougars have four high-volume shooters making at least 36% from beyond the arc and two guys shooting above 40%.

Teams have to be able to effectively guard spacing when they face BYU, and that isn't a strength of the UCF defense. The Knights rank outside the 100 defensively in guarding spacing and preventing open 3s, per ShotQuality.

Both of these offenses rank inside the top 50 in transition offense, per ShotQuality, and neither defense excels in that area. The Cougars are elite on the glass and should be able to control the transition game as a result of that.

UCF is at its best when it can force turnovers and run off them, but BYU's offense is top-40 nationally in protecting the ball.

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The Knights are great when they can run the floor against teams and dominate the offensive glass. They're not good as a first-shot offense and rank 230th in effective field goal percentage. However, they typically make up for those deficiencies with extra shot attempts from those offensive rebounds.

UCF should be able to find success in transition against BYU, but it's not going to be able to win on the offensive glass here against a Cougars defense that ranks third in defensive rebounding rate.

You can't just take off the Kansas win from their résumé, but you also can't overreact to one game. Prior to that win over Kansas, UCF's best win came over 132nd-ranked South Dakota State on a neutral court. They didn't have a single win against a top-100 opponent before this week.

Coming into the season, UCF hit the transfer portal hard but made bets on a lot of low-ceiling players. The results have been solid on the defensive end, but they've struggled to establish a ceiling in a difficult Big 12 with a ton of depth.

The market opened with BYU as a 5.5-point favorite, and UCF has taken some money at some books to move to 4.5 at FanDuel.

Two weeks ago, the Cougars would have been laying 7.5.

I'm buying BYU at a discount here coming off two losses and expect the Cougars to dominate the glass and protect the ball against UCF's havoc-inducing defense.

Pick: BYU -4.5 (Play to -5)

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