Maryland vs Iowa Odds, Pick: Hawkeyes to Drain 3s

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Maryland Terrapins are clinging to life as a potential bubble team in the NCAA Tournament field come March.

However, Iowa just lost to Purdue by 14 points on Saturday and now looks to bounce back at home.

On the other side, Maryland fell to Northwestern and Michigan State in one-possession games after a massive win on the road over Illinois.

This game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena will come down to offense. This Hawkeyes team is a bit different than in recent years because they don't shoot 3s too often.

While Maryland boasts a great defense, Iowa has enough to throw the Terps off.

Maryland has a top-20 defense, but it struggles horribly on the offensive end of the floor. It ranks 291st in effective field goal percentage while shooting a horrid 28.3% from deep and hitting just 50% of shots from 2-point range.

This should help the weaker end for Iowa, as the Hawkeyes don't play strong defense.

Maryland’s only source of scoring could be from the free-throw line or on the post-up, where Iowa can barely defend. If that's the case, look for a big game from Maryland forward Julian Reese.

The Terrapins can get to the strike pretty frequently, which is a major source of consistent points even on the road. However, Iowa is better at not fouling on defense than the Terps.

Keep in mind, though, that Maryland is 2-4 on the road. Even if those games are close, the home team will likely be the beneficiary of fortunate calls.

Adding on, Maryland has major issues with turning the ball over, while Iowa ranks in the top five in offensive turnover rate. The Hawkeyes should be able to turn the Terps over more often in this case, so expect Owen Freeman and Tony Perkins to get out in transition, where Fran McCaffery's team frequently finds points.

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Now, Iowa is a much better offensive team than the Terps. That's no secret. The Hawkeyes own a 34.7% 3-point percentage and 54% 2-point percentage, and they tend to get the ball inside.

The Hawkeyes are better on offensive post-ups than Maryland is defensively in terms of points per possession, per Shot Quality.

Iowa should be able to finish at the rim, too, as it ranks in the top 70 in that area.

Although Iowa doesn't take many 3s, it can in this game, which would exploit a major hole in the Terps' defensive scheme. Iowa ranks in the top 30 in offensive points per possession on catch-and-shoot 3s and off-the-dribble 3s, per Shot Quality. Meanwhile, Maryland ranks below 90th in both on defense.

Ben Krikke, Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix can be explosive from outside the perimeter, providing an offensive boost against a team that allows opponents to shoot nearly 34% from outside.

Finally, Iowa has had some trouble crashing the boards on both offense and defense. Freeman and Sandfort are the best defensive rebounders of the bunch on the Hawkeyes, so someone needs to lock Reese down on the block.

If Iowa can find a way to do that, it'll have a good shot at winning, as Maryland needs second chances to come out on top due to how poorly it shoots as a team.

Iowa should win the turnover battle in this game. So, if the Hawkeyes can prevent Reese from getting to the free-throw line and crashing the offensive glass, they could even win by double digits.

That being said, Iowa’s defense has struggled everywhere except for turnover differential. But that one strength could help against a Maryland team that's prone to mistakes and now finds itself playing on the road.

Expect the Hawkeyes to sink some 3s and pull out a cover at home. Take them to -6.

Pick: Iowa -4.5 (Play to -6)

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