Tarleton State vs Tennessee Odds, Pick for Thursday

Tennessee's season has already been one of runs.

It started 4-0 and then lost three straight to high-quality opponents in Purdue, Kansas and North Carolina. Since then, the Volunteers have won their last four games, including a 79-70 victory over NC State last Saturday in San Antonio.

On Thursday night, Tennessee will look to extend its winning streak to five when it hosts Tarleton State.

The Texans were working on a five-game winning streak of their own, but it came to an end Monday night with a 65-62 loss to Jacksonville State.

Additionally, the team announced on Tuesday that assistant Joseph Jones will serve as the acting head coach while head coach Billy Gillispie steps away for health reasons. Jones has been at the helm since Nov. 19, and his Texans will have an upset on their mind on Thursday night.

This will be the first matchup between Tarleton and Tennessee, but the coaching staffs are familiar with each other. Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has won six of his nine meetings against Gillispie, mostly stemming from their time in the Big 12 at Texas and Texas Tech, respectively.

Jones played in the Big 12 at Texas A&M, and his Aggies went 4-5 against Barnes' Longhorns.

In this matchup, Barnes' Volunteers are favored by over 20 points at home with a total of 139.5.

Tarleton State is led by a pair of senior forwards in Jakorie Smith and Kiandre Gaddy. Smith is averaging 15 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, while Gaddy has put up 12.6 points and a team-leading 7.5 rebounds per game.

The Texans received a big performance from guard Devon Barnes on Monday, as he scored a career-high 20 points. Barnes, who's now nearly averaging double figures, leads the team in assists and is the team's best 3-point shooter at 38.1% on the year.

However, he's a bit of an outlier on the team in both areas.

Tarleton State is averaging just 12.1 assists (283rd nationally) per game while turning the ball over 12.7 times per game (22oth nationally). Its turnover numbers come despite the fact that it's 269th in adjusted tempo and 331st in average possession length offensively.

The Texans are also shooting just 30.7% from 3. They rank 268th or worse in 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage and effective field goal percentage. Fortunately for Tarleton, it does collect most of its misses, as it ranks 55th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.

It also creates extra possessions by forcing turnovers, coming in at 11th nationally with 10.5 steals per game and 20th in turnover percentage overall.

However, the Texans can struggle to control the glass defensively. They rank 304th in defensive rebounding percentage and are undersized with Smith and Gaddy both being 6-foot-6 in the frontcourt.

They will have to overcome that size disadvantage against Tennessee.

Offensively, Tennessee has been inconsistent over the last few seasons. However, with the Vols scoring 78.1 points per game thus far this season, they're on pace for their highest scoring average per game since 2018-19 when they finished 31-6.

One reason for the increase in production is that they're playing faster this season, ranking 41st in average possession length offensively.

Tennessee also went to the transfer portal to land guard Dalton Knecht from Northern Colorado. The senior averaged over 20 points a game at UNCO last season, and he has adjusted well to high-major basketball. He's averaging 16.5 points per game while shooting 38% from 3, which could put him in contention for SEC Player of the Year.

Returnees Josiah-Jordan James and Jonas Aidoo are both averaging over 11 points and six rebounds per game as well.

James is shooting a career-high 45% from 3 on 3.6 attempts per game, while Aidoo is tied for third in the SEC at 1.6 blocks per game. Tennessee is also averaging 4.6 swats per game as a team.

As usual, the Vols are elite on the defensive end, ranking fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Aided by Aidoo's presence, they're 18th in 2-point percentage defense and 34th in blocks rate.

Tennessee is also holding opponents to 31% from 3 while ranking 23rd in effective field goal percentage on the defensive end of the floor.

This season, Tennessee is allowing 67.3 points per game. However, in four games against schools outside of high-major conferences, that average drops to 56.2 points per game.

I expect Tennessee to put the clamps down on Tarleton State in this game.

While I'm interested in the under on Tarleton State's team total, that line is currently unavailable. Considering the spread, it may be around 58.5 points.

However, I also like the matchup for Tennessee offensively. Knecht may be in for a big night, given that the Texans struggle to defend the 3-ball. He shouldn't have much trouble getting his shot off in this matchup.

Aidoo may also be a candidate for a double-double against the Texans' smaller front line.

In those four games against non-high major opponents, Tennessee has won by 24.5 points per game and has gone 2-2 against the spread.

Tarleton State has played just one high-major opponent and lost by 30 to another defensive-minded team in Virginia. It also lost by 23 points at Bradley.

Another 23-point loss would help the Vols cover this spread, so I like Tennessee to roll at home.

Pick: Tennessee -22.5

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