Saint Louis vs NC State Odds, Pick for Wednesday

For the college basketball maniacs out there, Wednesday brings us a fun NCAA tournament rematch from 2014. In a wild finish, Saint Louis overcame a 14-point deficit with five minutes remaining (and a 2.0% chance to win) to conquer the Wolfpack in overtime.

Did they also play in St. Louis in December of 2020? Yes, but shhh, the 2014 clash was far more memorable!

Of course, neither of those past matchups are all that relevant for handicapping this one. Much more important is the schedule spot and health for each side.

Saint Louis is coming off a borderline miracle victory in which Terrence Hargrove Jr. went on a personal 11-4 run in the final 28 seconds to stun Louisiana Tech.

NC State, meanwhile, fell short in a back-and-forth battle with Tennessee in San Antonio.

Assessing SLU games start with the most basic of detail: Who is actually going to be playing? Injuries up and down the roster have left the Bills in a constant state of flux, rarely seeing rotational consistency from one game to the next.

Scoring wing Sincere Parker likely remains out after breaking his foot in mid-November, while Michael Meadows Jr. has now missed three straight games due to a back issue.

On the bright side, Larry Hughes II returned from injury last game, and the Bills added Georgetown transfer Bradley Ezewiro via the blanket eligibility ruling for two-time transfers.

Ezewiro is crucial for a team that lacked any true paint presence. Foreign freshmen Bruce Zhang and Stef van Bussel aren't quite ready to contribute at the Atlantic 10 level, so getting Ezewiro should prove to be a major boost to the Bills’ interior on both ends.

Ezewiro quickly made his presence felt against Louisiana Tech, racking up 17 points and five rebounds in 18 minutes off the bench before fouling out. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him ascend to the starting five for this one.

The constants all season for SLU have been Hargrove and sniper Gibson Jimerson, both of whom have started all 12 contests. Largely due to those two and Hughes, SLU’s perimeter shooting has frequently helped it stay in games.

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NC State has been a bit of a national enigma this year. The Wolfpack haven't been on national TV often, with their biggest contests — a two-game event in Las Vegas, this past Saturday’s matchup with Tennessee — coming later at night.

This is not last year’s NC State squad, which rode the individual shot creation brilliance of Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner to an NCAA tournament bid.

Kevin Keatts had to backfill nearly the entire backcourt rotation after those two departed. Transfers Jayden Taylor and DJ Horne have shot the lights out so far, but neither offers quite the same electricity off the dribble as Smith and Joiner.

Taylor and Horne (and Stanford import Michael O’Connell) also don't push in transition at quite the maniacal speed that Smith and Joiner did. As a result, NC State’s transition rank  has fallen from 65th last year to 134th this season, according to Hoop-Math.

The lone constants from 2022-23 are DJ Burns Jr. — a wrecking ball lefty post scorer — and Casey Morsell — a 3-and-D wing with some burgeoning playmaking skills.

Burns is the centerpiece, a dominant one-on-one scorer who has tremendous touch in the near-mid-range. His rise in minutes has also led Keatts to playing more in the half court.

Despite his immense strength, though, Burns struggles to generate a ton of contact, instead preferring to finish over the top of his defender. That infrequent foul drawing will be important for SLU to keep the newly-eligible Ezewiro on the floor.

Interestingly, both teams are coming off their slowest contest of the season, pace-wise. For both teams, some of that was opponent-driven, but it could signal a shift in style for Saint Louis.

The 6-foot-9, 265-pound Ezewiro adds a significant new dimension to the Bills’ approach. Previously, SLU often played tiny lineups with the 6-foot-5 Hargrove slotting in as the nominal center. As a result, Travis Ford frequently sped games up with defensive pressure.

Now SLU can play a full 40 minutes with a true big man on the floor. NC State has shown that it will play a more measured tempo at home against certain foes, and with SLU’s scheme likely adjusting given its new personnel, don't expect a track meet.

Ezewiro, and a slightly healthier perimeter rotation, should also allow the Bills to compete with a high-major foe like NC State.

Taking the points with SLU is appealing to me as well, but my best bet on this game is the under.

Pick: Under 152.5 (Play to 150)

In Q1 2024, North Carolina sports betting fans will be able to bet the NC State games at NC legal sportsbooks. Get the latest news.