South Carolina vs Arkansas Odds, Pick for Saturday
(Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images) Pictured: Tramon Mark
South Carolina vs Arkansas Odds, Pick
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Bud Walton Arena is one of the greatest spectacles in college basketball. When the Arkansas Razorbacks are playing their A-game, it's one of the loudest road environments in the sport.
For the Hogs, it hasn't been a season to remember, but Eric Musselman's team is now trying to build momentum in conference play after defeating Texas A&M on Tuesday.
In come the South Carolina Gamecocks, who are looking to rebound after a bad loss to Georgia. They may have an impressive 14-3 record, but their strength of schedule implies they could be a bit fraudulent.
If the Gamecocks leave Bud Walton Arena with a victory, they will shut down their doubters, including myself. That's not to say the Hogs are an elite basketball team, but when you can win on the road against a decent opponent, you distinguish yourself from the rest of the pack.
The Gamecocks enter the matchup with similar offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency rankings, both around the top-75 in the nation. The metrics suggest they are stronger on defense than offense.
They are a sound defensive rebounding team and are elite at defending inside the arc. It is crucial to defend the interior well against the Hogs as they rely on scoring inside and drawing trips to the free-throw line.
Considering the Hogs don't take a ton of 3s, this is a good matchup for the Gamecocks to put up a solid defensive performance. They may not force turnovers, but I have confidence they can hold the Hogs at bay.
The reason I can't trust the Gamecocks in this contest is their offense. They are a snail-paced offensive team and shoot poorly from beyond the arc.
They are also a mediocre free-throw shooting team, and most of their scoring comes from inside the arc. The problem is the Hogs defend inside relatively well, so points are a premium for the offense.
Without looking at the numbers, you would automatically assume the Hogs will win this game based on the talent discrepancy. Junior forward Tramon Mark is coming off a monster 35-point performance and is the most talented player on the floor.
Mark had 22 free-throw attempts on Tuesday and cashed in on 17. I expect him to be just as aggressive Saturday.
The Hogs will have to generate offense other than at the free-throw line to win this game comfortably. The Gamecocks rank in the middle of the pack in free-throw attempts allowed, but the Hogs are fifth in the country in free-throw attempts per game.
Despite their trips to the line, the Hogs are shooting 72% as a team.
The Hogs won't be able to score inside, so I can't envision where their scoring will come from. The Hogs will have to get hot from deep to put up points, but they are 311th in 3-point attempts, so I don't see that happening.
South Carolina vs. Arkansas
Betting Pick & Prediction
I have no clue who will win the matchup, so the best approach is to take the under. I have a strong feeling both of these offenses are going to struggle.
The Gamecocks' tempo should turn this game into a slow-paced grinder. If the Hogs aren't getting to the free-throw line, I don't see how their offense will put up points.
I trust both defenses to hold and keep this as a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Under 142.5
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