NCAA Basketball Predictions: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets for Wednesday, Including Michigan vs. Buffalo
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- Ky McKeon of Three Man Weave recommends three best bets for Wednesday's college basketball slate, including Buffalo vs. Michigan, Robert Morris vs. UCF and Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Seton Hall.
- The point spread for Buffalo vs. Michigan opened at Buffalo +18.5 and has since been bet all the way down to +12.5, but that's fine by us: We see value on the Bulls' side here.
- Find updated odds for all three of our college basketball best bets, including our picks and predictions for every game below.
With dramatic endings in Akron vs. Ohio State and Jacksonville State vs. Wichita State, two stellar performances by Kansas and Duke in the Champions Classic and upsets galore, the first day of the college hoops season was an instant success.
Day two’s slate is thinner and doesn’t feature any true marquee matchups, but there are still opportunities to pad your wallet.
Here is our three best bets for Wednesday evening from Three Man Weave.
Wednesday’s College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Buffalo vs. Michigan
By Ky McKeon
Buffalo is a scary team for a power conference school to schedule in its first game of the regular season. That’s especially true in the case of Michigan, a team bringing in a plethora of new pieces, hosting a Buffalo squad that returns nearly everyone from last year.
The Bulls are the consensus MAC favorites this season and a KenPom top-100 team. This is essentially the same squad that finished 77th in KenPom, took Syracuse to overtime and nearly upended Colorado State in the NIT last season.
While power teams usually have a major athleticism edge over mid-major opponents, that isn’t the case tonight. Buffalo is every bit as athletic as the majority of power teams and it’s projected to start four guys over 6-foot-5.
Perimeter pressure is where Buffalo can bother Michigan. The Bulls have a long, active backcourt that could give new point guard DeVante Jones (6-foot-1) and returning 2-guard Eli Brooks (6-foot-1) headaches while initiating offense.
Head coach Jim Whitesell loves getting out in transition, so there’s a chance Buffalo can pop the Wolverines in the mouth early with some quick layups on the other end as a result of the stifling perimeter defense.
Buffalo’s main concern tonight is Hunter Dickinson, who stands at 7-feet, dwarfing the Bulls’ starting center Josh Mballa (6-foot-7). But Mballa is used to playing the “undersized” role — he thrives in that role.
Mballa is the reigning MAC Defensive Player of the Year and one of the nation’s top rebounders. While he’ll give a few inches to Dickinson, he won’t roll over like a dog in search of a biscuit.
13-plus points is a big spread to lay for Michigan against a team capable of punching far above its weight class. With only three returnees from last year’s Elite Eight squad, Juwan Howard needs time to integrate his new players.
You can bet Buffalo will show no mercy as the Michigan newcomers get up to speed.
Pick: Buffalo +13.5 (Bet to +13)
Robert Morris vs. UCF
By Ky McKeon
Throw last season out the window for Robert Morris, which finished just 4-15 (3-12) and 303rd in KenPom. It was an uncharacteristic performance for longtime head coach Andrew Toole. His team was dealing with a myriad of injuries in the midst of COVID and a conference change.
Toole, often the victim of the transfer portal, realized he needed to bring in talent this season in order to compete in the Horizon (and beyond). He accomplished his goal by landing seven D-I transfers and a JUCO All-American.
Matt Mayers, the JUCO All-American, comes to RMU with high regards. He’ll be the key to slowing down UCF’s onslaught on the glass.
Former Bryant point guard Michael Green III will add some serious scoring to the backcourt after he poured in 16 points per game last season. Rasheem Dunn (St. John’s) and Ferron Flavors Jr. (Oklahoma State) come from power programs.
Given the level of talent now on the Bobby Mo roster, it’s safe to say the Colonials are underrated. KenPom has them at just 283rd to start the year, a consequence of the algorithm’s limitations with transfers.
UCF is admittedly a scary team to play against. The Knights are huge, experienced and overflowing with talent of their own. RMU needs to protect its defensive glass or this game could get out of hand.
The good news for RMU backers is their side has the coaching advantage. I’ll take Toole over Johnny Dawkins 100 times out of 100. Toole is a smart coach — he knows he needs to slow the game down and run meticulous offense in the halfcourt.
Hopefully Dawkins will oblige Toole’s slower-paced gameplan and maintain his historically slow tempo as well.
This game should be low enough on the possession count for Robert Morris to hang around. Less possessions equals less points, great for big dog backers such as us.
Pick: Robert Morris +17 (Bet to +16)
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Seton Hall
By Ky McKeon
We see major blowouts in the non-conference portion of the schedule every season between low majors and power six squads.
This should be one of those instances.
Seton Hall comes in a tad underrated after losing All-Star forward Sandro Mamukelashvili. Rest assured, the Pirates still have plenty of talent in the cupboard, and head coach Kevin Willard helped reload via the transfer portal.
New point guard Kadary Richmond, a Syracuse defector, could be one of the better players in the country this season. He’s right at the top of the list of “guys you don’t right now but will know them in March.”
Alexis Yetna comes to Hall via South Florida, where he was a dominant rebounder and post presence.
Jamir Harris scored over 20 points per game for American in a shortened season.
So, Hall is loaded. What can we expect from FDU?
The Knights are in trouble in this matchup for a couple reasons, but chief among might simply be youth.
In a season where nearly every team is chock full with experience, FDU has very little. The Knights are projected to start four underclassmen (and potentially a freshman at point guard) and have only two juniors on their entire roster (zero seniors).
Welcome to Yikes-Town, population FDU.
Whether they have experience or not, it wouldn’t matter for the Knights’ atrocious defense. FDU has never allowed less than 1.10 PPP for a season under Greg Herenda in his eight-year tenure.
Herenda has had just one team finish in KenPom’s top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency — and that team was 295th. The Knights’ defense is a sieve through which Seton Hall will waltz all night long.
Expect Hall to dominate the glass on the offensive end. FDU is consistently among the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, and it has very little size to combat the giant Ike Obiagu or Yetna. The Pirates should grab a high percentage of their misses and rack up points in bunches.
This game is going to get out of hand in a hurry.
Seton Hall in a rout.
Pick: Seton Hall -24 (Bet to -26)
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