Wednesday features an appetizing 55-game slate, and I'm diving into three of those matchups.
In my college basketball picks and NCAAB best bets, I'm targeting a "road revenge" angle in the Horizon League, alongside a big road 'dog prediction in the Big Ten and an Over/Under pick in the SEC.
College Basketball Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 PM | |
  | 7 PM | |
  | 9 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oakland vs. IU Indy Pick
Let’s start in the Horizon League with a great spot for the better team.
In the first meeting between these two, IU Indy embarrassed Oakland in Oakland, posting an absurd 1.44 points per possession en route to a 103-85 road win.
With the location flipped, I love the “road revenge” angle for the better team.
That IU Indy loss sparked a 50-spot drop in KenPom, largely fueled by an injury to star forward Isaac Garrett. His absence badly hindered a rotation that was already thin: per KenPom, the Golden Grizzlies rank 300th nationally in bench minutes.
With Garrett back, Oakland may be undervalued analytically.
The Grizzlies’ offense, which ranks 82nd nationally per KenPom, has a massive edge. Oakland rarely turns it over, ranking second in the Horizon and 48th nationally in turnover rate.
IU Indy’s defense is frighteningly poor if it cannot force turnovers, ranking 353rd or worse in effective field-goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding rate, and free-throw rate allowed.
If you break the pressure, you score.
The first game had some outlier shooting, as well. Shot Quality graded it an 87-82 win for Oakland, a massive difference from the actual result.
With the spot, health, and matchup offering edges for the Golden Grizzlies, I think Oakland runs away with this one on the road.
Pick: Oakland -7 or Better
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Maryland vs. Nebraska Prediction
From a mid-major road favorite to a big road underdog.
Maryland heads to Lincoln to take on a Nebraska team that has lost four of its past seven.
Maryland is playing much better recently. Filtering Bart Torvik since Feb. 6, so in the Terrapins’ last five games, they rank 66th nationally. They have won at Minnesota and beaten Iowa and Washington at home, displaying a higher ceiling and more competitive edge than they have shown most of the season.
A big reason for that surge is the emergence of redshirt freshman Andre Mills. He erupted for 39 points at Northwestern last Wednesday, and he is averaging 21.0 points per game over that five-game stretch.
Buzz Williams has also leaned on a jumbo lineup, starting his three primary big men together – Solomon Washington, Elijah Saunders, and Collin Metcalf.
One other key part of this handicap: Nebraska’s roster is dealing with the flu.
That could mean a surprise absence or two — or at the very least, some under-the-weather performances. That article specifies starting guard Jamarques Lawrence, who is also battling an ankle injury.
It certainly feels scary to fade Nebraska at Pinnacle Bank Arena, as the Cornhuskers have a sterling reputation there. But this season, Fred Hoiberg’s team is only 7-8-1 ATS at home. The Huskers are not invincible.
Taking the Terps on the road against a top Big Ten Team is at “close your eyes” level, considering they lost by 43 at Michigan State and 19 at Illinois.
However, their current form and Nebraska’s health situation give me confidence here.
Pick: Maryland +16 or Better
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Texas A&M vs. Arkansas Best Bet
This total is awfully high, but Arkansas’ offense is the perfect place to start for hitting such a lofty number.
Led by two freshmen, star point guard Darius Acuff and wing assassin Meleek Thomas, Arkansas now ranks fourth nationally in offensive efficiency.
The Razorbacks’ best offensive lineup, featuring Acuff and Thomas in the backcourt plus physical senior Malique Ewin at center, scores nearly 135 points per 100 possessions, per CBB Analytics.
It is a devastating combination of shot creation, shot making, and offensive rebounding. That group can run it up on even the best opponents.
Most importantly in this matchup: the Hogs never turn it over. They rank first in the entire country in turnover rate, per KenPom.
Under new coach Bucky McMillan, Texas A&M loves to press, doing so on 41.8% of possessions per Synergy (99th percentile rate).
If Arkansas can beat the press, the Hogs can score at will.
Texas A&M has routes to points as well.
The Arkansas interior defense is a weakness, and Acuff and Thomas sometimes struggle to contain drivers. Plus, the Aggies can light it up from deep, and Arkansas could be owed some harmful regression on defense. In their past five games, Razorback opponents are shooting just 27.6% from beyond the arc.
Both teams want to get up and down, so pace should be an asset here as well. Arkansas ranks 21st nationally in fastest average possession length, while Texas A&M ranks 16th.
The convergence of two up-tempo offenses with matchup advantages puts me on the over here.
Pick: Over 172 or Better
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