We have an absolutely loaded 143-game college basketball slate on Saturday.
Our staff of betting experts has been locked in all year, and they’re fully ready for conference tournaments to start on Monday.
But before the calendar flips to March, we have five college basketball picks and NCAAB best bets to share for Saturday, February 28.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 PM | |
  | 2 PM | |
  | 4 PM | |
  | 6 PM | |
  | 7:30 PM | |
 | Noon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Virginia vs. Duke Pick
By Sean Paul
With Duke and Virginia both having elite defenses and ranking outside the top 250 nationally in adjusted tempo, I have to take the Under.
Since both teams shoot a lot of 3s, that could sting me, but the dominance of the two defenses should make it tougher to get clean looks from deep.
Plus, Duke and Virginia are elite on the boards on both ends.
That should lead to some one-and-done possessions, allowing a slower half-court setup.
Pick: Under 137.5 or Better
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San Diego State vs. New Mexico State Prediction
By Ky McKeon
The Pit ranks among the top-10 home-court advantages in the country, per KenPom, meaning San Diego State will be hard-pressed to pull out a crucial victory tonight.
But New Mexico hasn’t been invincible at home this season, losing outright to Boise State and Utah State while going just 7-7 against the spread.
San Diego State's defense should be able to propel it to either a victory or a one-score loss.
Pick: San Diego State +2 or Better
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Kansas vs. Arizona Projection
I project nearly 154 points for this Big 12 battle, so I’d be willing to play the Over at 150 or better, representing a minimum four-point difference between my projection and the market.
Since Arizona joined the Big 12, all three head-to-head meetings between Bill Self and Tommy Lloyd have finished over the closing total, with an average of 161.3 points scored in those games.
The last matchup finished 82-78 over 73 possessions, a relatively quick pace. And despite both teams shooting relatively well, it could’ve been even higher scoring, given ShotQuality graded it as an 89-81 Arizona win based on the “quality” of shots from both teams.
I project around 70.2 possessions for this game with scoring efficiency between 1.09 and 1.10 PPP, which should put this game well into the 150s.
Pick: Over 150 or Better
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Oklahoma vs. LSU Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
This system, titled Under Radar Home System, is built on the belief that late-season conference games in major leagues often create quiet value on home teams that attract minimal betting attention.
By isolating regular-season matchups in February and March within power conferences where the home side is not drawing outsized ticket volume compared to the daily average, the model targets spots where perception and media focus may overlook situational advantages.
As conference races tighten, familiarity intensifies and home court edges become more pronounced, yet public bettors frequently gravitate toward ranked teams or recent headline performers regardless of venue.
When the home team operates under the radar in terms of betting activity, the line may not fully reflect the impact of travel fatigue, scouting familiarity, and urgency tied to postseason positioning.
Backing these understated home teams on the moneyline seeks to exploit inefficiencies that arise when narrative drives attention elsewhere while structural conference dynamics quietly favor the host.
Pick: LSU ML
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Arkansas vs. Florida Pick
By Jim Root
Something has to give between the two top-five units on the floor: Arkansas’s fireworks-show offense and Florida’s boa constrictor defense.
But stylistically, we should see points.
Arkansas doesn’t rely exclusively on rim pressure; instead, it has elite shot-makers. Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas can score at all three levels, and both are comfortable pulling up or working in space. Florida’s rim protection is real, but Arkansas can generate offense without living at the cup.
On the other end, Florida should absolutely punish Arkansas inside. The Razorbacks have struggled to contain dribble penetration, and their rim vulnerability is a blinking neon warning sign against the Gators’ bigs. The Gators could feast in the paint, live at the line, and generate second chances all night.
Pace is another factor. Both teams are willing participants in a track meet, ranking 50th and 20th nationally in offensive possession length, respectively, per KenPom. That suggests a high-possession environment, especially if this turns into a back-and-forth contest where both offenses are getting what they want.
I probably prefer Florida’s team total if you’re isolating one angle, as 100 points isn’t out of the question here.
But for our purposes, I will go with the full game over.
With Billy Richmond emerging as another perimeter force, Arkansas’ offense is good enough to clear its share, and Florida has the profile to light up a vulnerable defense.
Pick: Over 168 or Better
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Stuckey's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Saturday's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Stuckey is betting on!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all your favorite experts:
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