CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Texas-TCU, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Texas Longhorns forward Jaxson Hayes (10) and guard Jase Febres (13). Credit: Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three college basketball games Wednesday night, headlined by Texas-TCU (7 p.m. ET on ESPNU).
- Sharps are also betting Tennessee-Vanderbilt (7 p.m. ET. ESPN2) and La Salle-Fordham (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
- Using the tools available at the Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting all three games.
The countdown to Super Bowl 53 is officially underway. For the next two weeks, the gambling universe will be fixated on the big game. How will we bide our time until the SB53 sweat begins?
You guessed it. Betting on college hoops.
After breaking down Wednesday’s loaded 42-game college basketball slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve pinpointed three games that sharps are focusing in, all starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
La Salle @ Fordham
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: La Salle (moved from +4 to +2)
While casual bettors focus mostly on the marquee televised games, value-minded sharps will look to exploit an edge no matter how big or small a game is. Take, for instance, this overlooked A10 showdown.
Fordham (9-9) opened as a short 4-point favorite against visiting La Salle (3-14). Because of the Explorers’ awful won-loss record, nearly 70% of bets expect an easy cover from Fordham at home.
However, we’ve seen this line fall two full points toward the road dog (+4 to +2). In situations such as this, Average Joes would double down on Fordham, knowing they can now get a better line. But seasoned wiseguys know that if it looks too good to be true, chances are it is.
Wiseguys got down hard on La Salle +3, triggering market-wide reverse line movement. The Explorers are getting only 31% of bets but 61% of dollars, making them a match for the Bet Labs PRO system Money Disparity Causes Line Move (59% ATS since 2005).
Texas @ TCU
7 p.m. ET | ESPNU
Sharp angle: Texas (moved from +5 to +1.5)
Of all the Wednesday night games, this Big 12 showdown is seeing the biggest, sharpest line movement.
TCU (13-4) has a superior record than Texas (11-7) and also enjoys home-court advantage. As a result, more than 60% of bettors are laying the points with the Horned Frogs.
However, after opening at TCU -5, the line has plummeted all the way to -1.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public bettors an easier shot at covering? As always, follow the money.
In the most heavily bet game of the night, Texas is getting only 39% of bets but a whopping 75% of dollars. This massive bets vs. dollars split indicates heavy professional wagers on the road dog, with mostly $5 casual bets taking the home favorite.
Texas also matches the top Bet Labs PRO system Poor ATS vs Good ATS teams (59% ATS since 2005).
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Vanderbilt (moved from +11.5 to +8.5)
Similar to Texas, we’re seeing massive sharp line movement toward the Vanderbilt Commodores (9-8).
Tennessee looks like the lock of the century for the public. The Volunteers are 16-1 and just leapfrogged Duke to secure the No. 1 ranking in the country. So of course, nearly 80% of bettors are laying the points with the top team in the nation.
Tennessee opened as a 11.5-point road favorite. But despite receiving incredibly lopsided public support, the Vols have fallen to -8.5.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a pair of steam and reverse line moves on Vandy, with sharps hitting the home dog at +11 and +10. This overload of smart money forced oddmakers to adjust the spread a full three points since the opener.
Vandy is receiving only 25% of bets but 42% of dollars — further evidence of smart money grabbing the points, not laying them.
It also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Teams off Big Loss vs Highly Ranked Opponent (68% ATS since 2005).