NCAAB Odds, Pick for Creighton vs Providence

Providence struggled mightily at Villanova on Sunday evening, as its offense could not establish a rhythm. On Wednesday evening, the Friars will return home to take on the Creighton Bluejays.

The Friars are now 5-6 in conference play, so it is crucial they turn things around to keep their at-large bids alive. It won't be easy, however, as the Bluejays have plenty of offensive firepower to blow past the Friars.

The Bluejays had no business losing to Butler, hence why they could falter on the road in this spot. Luckily for Creighton, it has a clear offensive advantage in this matchup.

They Bluejays enter the contest ranked in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their balance on both sides of the floor is why they are a potential Final Four team.

The intriguing dynamic in the matchup is watching their interior scoring against the Friars. Providence is top 10 in opposing 2PT% whereas Creighton is third in the country in that category. Big man Ryan Kalkbrenner has an intriguing matchup against the Friars' Josh Oduro, but I give Kalkbrenner the upper hand.

Even if the Bluejays have the tools to win the battle inside, their outside shooters must step up. They love to let it fly from deep, and if they are clicking from distance, there is no chance for the Friars to keep up.

The lone concern I have about Creighton is if it fails to overcome its last game against Butler. This is the last environment in the conference that you want to fall behind in a game.

It seems like years ago when the Friars had that massive win at home in Ed Cooley's return. The Friars' offense can't figure it out of late, and they need to figure it out in a hurry. Providence went 7-of-33 from downtown against Villanova on Sunday. They'll need a much better shooting display to take down the Bluejays.

The lone good news for Friars fans is their defense is among the elite in the country. They are ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. There is concern they may get exposed on the interior against Kalkbrenner, but their perimeter defense is excellent. As long as the Bluejays do not go ballistic from deep, there is reason to believe the Friars can hang tough.

Their offensive numbers are nothing special, but they are a good interior scoring team. The problem is that the strength of the Bluejays' defense is inside, so the Friars have to get creative on offense.

Providence's backcourt of Devin Carter and Jayden Pierre have to get it going from deep, and some fortune in the variance department is imminent. The Friars are shooting 32% from deep and are 51st in 3-point attempts per game.

The Bluejays do not foul and the Friars are poor from the charity stripe. The scoring has to come from the mid-range and the outside, or else Providence is set up for another lackluster offensive performance.

It's time to buy low on the Friars. Weird shenanigans occur at The Dunk, so maybe the roof begins to leak late in the second half as it did a couple of years ago.

Defensively, I have faith the Friars can contain the Bluejays from the outside. As long as Kalkbrenner does not eat Oduro for lunch, that should keep them competitive throughout the matchup.

The offense is not great right now, but Creighton is one of the worst teams in the country in opposing turnover rate. Clean possessions for the Friars should allow them to generate some offense.

Providence is due for some fortune from outside, as those shots need to start falling eventually. This is a buy-low spot, and there is something about the Bluejays that is scaring me off of them.

Pick: Providence +2.5 (Play to +1)