Florida State vs UNC Odds & Pick: Tight Game?

We're onto the third day of the ACC Tournament, meaning the teams who secured double-byes will finally get on the hardwood. No. 1 seed North Carolina will play No. 9 seed Florida State, who beat No. 8 seed Virginia Tech in the second round.

Let's dive into our Florida State vs. UNC preview and pick.

Leonard Hamilton's coaching future is in limbo as retirement rumors loom. If Florida State can't advance, it could be Hamilton's final game as head coach unless the NIT gives his team a call.

Florida State wants to play a full-court game and muck it up. The Seminoles play at the 29th-fastest tempo in America while forcing turnovers on 20% of defensive possessions. Once the Seminoles' length and athleticism helps force a turnover, that leads to run-out chances.

They're one of the biggest in America, as all five starters stand 6-foot-5 or taller and Jalen Warley initiates the offense as a 6-foot-7 point guard. The offense relies on VCU transfer Jamir Watkins, who scored 34 points against Virginia Tech and leads the team with 15.5 points per game.

The Seminoles' defense gets shredded if they don't force a turnover, however. Florida State opponents shoot 51% from 2-point range (228th nationally) and 35% from 3 (272nd nationally). Not only is Florida State mediocre at forcing poor shots, but it also struggles to rebound.

Shooting is another potential concern for Florida State. When you focus on athleticism, you tend to lose production in other areas, like shooting.

The Seminoles only attempt 3s on 31% of field goals, connecting on 31% of those shots. The only two reliable shooters are Watkins (35%) and shooting guard Darin Green Jr. (37%).

Florida State lost by single digits in both matchups against UNC in the regular season.

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The Tar Heels enter the ACC Tournament as winners of six straight games, with an 84-79 win over Duke being the latest victory.

UNC's steady offense should combat the Seminoles' defensive pressure. Most of the starters, namely RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau, don't panic under pressure. However, UNC turned the ball over 31 total times in the first two meetings against Florida State.

Davis is the ACC Player of the Year — averaging 21.1 points per game on 43% shooting and 41% from 3. He's completely transformed into being one of the best players in college basketball.

Davis is far and away the best guard on the court in this one and he scored 24 and 27 points against Florida State already. Between Davis and Armando Bacot, UNC is one of three schools with two players on the Wooden Award watch list.

I've been critical of Hubert Davis the past few years and thought his miracle title game run masked potential long-term issues during his coaching tenure. He's entirely changed things this year, though.

It started this summer when he brought in some defensive-minded players in Harrison Ingram, Jae'Lyn Withers and Cormac Ryan from the portal. Adding the fresh blood led UNC to become a top-five defensive squad in America.

The Tar Heels limit opponents to 45.7% shooting from 2-point range and 31% from 3. This well-schooled UNC defense makes it difficult to get easy shots.

Moreover, UNC's offense can save the day if the defense struggles. The Tar Heels rank 26th in offensive efficiency, shooting 35% from 3. But UNC isn't great at finishing inside the arc, connecting on just 51% of 2s (191st nationally.)

Some of Bacot's struggles contribute to UNC's inside-scoring troubles. Bacot is shooting 54% from the field — the lowest mark since his freshman season — and is just 12-of-31 from the floor in the past three games. The good thing? UNC still won all three games with Bacot putting up rough numbers. When times get tough, I still trust the elder statesman center.

There's a reason UNC is a legitimate title contender.

I don't see Florida State getting totally blown out in this one.

While UNC is more rested, that could lead to some rust following an emotional win over Duke. It should turn into a high-possession game with the rampant pace of both teams.

As long as the Seminoles hit just enough shots, this one could look the same as the previous two games.

Pick: Florida State +10.5