NCAAB Odds, Pick | Georgetown vs Marquette Preview

Marquette began the season with impressive non-conference wins against Illinois, UCLA and Kansas and vaulted into the top five of the KenPom rankings at the beginning of December.

Since then, some cracks have shown for Shaka Smart's squad away from home. The Golden Eagles lost at Wisconsin and opened Big East play with a double-digit loss to Providence on Tuesday.

The Golden Eagles are now heavy favorites when they return home to Milwaukee on Friday against Georgetown.

The start of Ed Cooley's first season in D.C. has been rocky, thanks to a 7-4 non-conference record. The Hoyas were competitive but not close to winning at Butler in their Big East opener.

This is a bounce-back spot for Marquette, but the spread is still inflated. Both offenses have paths to success in this matchup, and the total is a couple of points too low.

Georgetown made north of 40% from 3 in its first eight games of the season, which wasn't at all sustainable. There was inevitable regression coming for Cooley's squad, given the quality of shots it was getting.

It's come for the Hoyas of late. They made 10-of-22 in the win against Notre Dame, but they made just 5-of-26 against Syracuse, 8-of-24 against Coppin State and 7-of-22 against Butler.

They're down to 36% for the season, which is about where they project offensively.

The ShotQuality numbers suggest that they can have success from beyond the arc against the Marquette defense. The Golden Eagles love to be aggressive and apply ball pressure. The Hoyas have problems with turnovers, which should lead to lots of transition chances for Marquette. That should also lead to open 3s for Georgetown.

Marquette ranks 177th nationally in Open 3 Rate, and teams are shooting 32% against the Golden Eagles this season. There's some defensive regression looming for the Marquette perimeter defense, which has taken a huge step forward from last season in the underlying numbers, despite very similar personnel.

Georgetown should get open 3s, and the Hoyas should also be able to get extra possessions on the offensive glass.

Marquette's lack of size is defining trait, and it does hurt the Golden Eagles on the defensive glass. The Hoyas have two elite offensive rebounders in Dontrez Styles and Supreme Cook, and they get second-chance looks at a top-50 rate nationally.

Marquette's defense will allow plenty of quality looks from offensive rebounds and thus, there's real potential for easy Georgetown buckets.

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Marquette's turnover differential in this matchup is the primary reason why the Golden Eagles are nearly 20-point home favorites. The Golden Eagles are top-40 at protecting the ball offensively and top-15 defensively at taking the ball away.

Given the Hoyas' inconsistent point guard play, you'd expect a lot of extra possessions for Marquette to get margin here.

The Golden Eagles love to run the floor in transition, and Georgetown and Cooley have major problems defending there. Per ShotQuality, the Hoyas are 249th nationally in transition defense.

Tyler Kolek will have plenty of chances to push the pace. The strength of the Hoyas' defense is on post-up sets, but Marquette has elite floor spacing, well above-average shot making and will get a ton of open 3s against Georgetown.

Smart's squad hasn't shot the ball particularly well from the perimeter this season, but it should attack the rim with relative ease.

The metrics say the Hoyas have defended the 3-point line well to this point, but it's more of a function of the poor opponents they've faced. The toughest opponent Georgetown has played was a TCU team that can't shoot and a Syracuse squad with very inconsistent jump shooting.

Marquette has had consecutive mediocre performances against St. Thomas and then in a road defeat against Providence.

The Golden Eagles have shown a willingness to push the pace even when leading in the second half, which will be a key in this matchup with a high total.

Georgetown will make enough 3s and get enough rebounds to score, but it's hard to see the Hoyas' porous defense slowing down Marquette at all.

This total opened a couple of points too low, and I'd bet the over at 151 or better.

Pick: Over 149.5 (Play to 151)

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