Georgetown vs. Creighton Odds, Betting Pick, Predictions: How to Bet Saturday’s Big East Tournament Championship (March 13)

Georgetown vs. Creighton Odds

The 2021 Big East Tournament Championship features the pre-tournament favorite against an unlikely but familiar opponent.

Creighton entered the tournament as the overall favorite after injuries severely hampered regular-season champion Villanova. The Bluejays earned a hard-fought 59-56 victory over a scalding-hot Connecticut team in the semifinals.

Georgetown entered the Big East Tournament with the third-worst odds at +8000. But guided by their legendary head coach, Patrick Ewing, the Hoyas disposed of Marquette, Villanova and Seton Hall on three consecutive nights to reach the championship game at Madison Square Garden.

In its seven seasons as a member of the Big East, Creighton has reached the championship game twice, but failed to win the title both times.

Georgetown is looking for a record eighth conference tournament title, and its first title since 2007.

Who should bettors back in a fantastic Big East finale that guarantees a history-making win?

Georgetown | (12-12, 7-9 Big East)

Georgetown has battled through multiple COVID pauses and is playing its best basketball of the season. The Hoyas have won three Big East Tournament games in three nights, including a 72-71 win over top-seeded Villanova. The Hoyas have played fantastic defense, holding two of those three opponents to 58 points or fewer.

Georgetown split the season series with Creighton, earning an impressive 86-79 road win on February 3rd. The biggest difference from that game has been the development of forward Chudier Bile (9.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG). The 6-foot-7 senior ended the regular season with 15 or more points in five of the Hoyas' last six games.

Bile has nine points, six rebounds, two blocks, and made huge plays on both ends of the floor to secure the 66-58 win over Seton Hall in the semifinals.  He gives the Hoyas another option along with guard Jahvon Blair (16 PPG) forward Jamorko Pickett (12.4 PPG) and center Qudus Wahab (12.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG).

Georgetown is a fantastic free-throw shooting team, ranking second in conference play at 78.1%. The Hoyas shot a superb 18-of-24 (75%) from the line in their victory at Creighton.

Ewing has developed his roster into one of the best rebounding teams in the country. The Hoyas ranks 53rd in the country in offensive rebounding, and were second-best within Big East play.

The staple of their interior presence is Wahab. The 6-foot-11 sophomore forward saw a streak of 10 consecutive games with seven or more rebounds end against Villanova in the quarterfinals. Wahab battled foul trouble throughout the game, and fouled out for the first time since December 20th.

His success on the offensive end will be critical to Georgetown's chances of winning. In their first matchup he tallied 12 points and eight rebounds, while he scored only six points in the Hoyas' 63-48 loss at home.

The critical defensive focus for the Hoyas will be limiting Creighton from beyond the arc. The Bluejays generate 38.3% from 3P in conference play, the highest percentage of any Big East team.

Surprisingly, Georgetown actually allowed a worse percentage from deep in its loss. Creighton only shot 6-of-25 (24%) from beyond the arc in its road victory, and 10-of-25 (38.5%) in their home loss.

Creighton | (20-7, 14-6 Big East)

The Bluejays have great guard play, led by preseason Big East Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski (15.4 PPG, 4.4 APG, 39.5% 3P) and senior guard Denzel Mahoney (13.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 34% 3P). They are one of the few teams with the offensive efficiency to match anyone in the country, ranking first in conference play in effective field goal percentage (56.4%) and two-point efficiency (56.9%).

The Bluejays rarely turn the ball over and are much improved on defense. Creighton is second in the Big East in adjusted defensive efficiency and first in  effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Bluejays were greatly improved in their second matchup against Georgetown, holding the Hoyas to just 25.9% (7-of-27) from 2P and 29% (9-of-31) from 3P.

Their critical weakness is at the free-throw line, where they averaged a Big East-worst 63.4% within conference play.

Head coach Greg McDermott will need his team to limit the Hoyas' second-chance points. The Bluejays struggle on the boards and do not extend their defense to force turnovers. Creighton ranks only 237th in defensive turnover rate, per KenPom, which is great news for a Georgetown team that is 311th in offensive turnover percentage. The Hoyas were the second-worst team at protecting the ball in conference play.

While 3P sharpshooters such as Zegarowski (40.4%),  Mahoney (34.5%), Damien Jefferson (39.2%), and Mitch Ballock (40.2%) should all see opportunities, they will need to find a way to negate the Hoyas' size advantage. The spotlight is certainly on 7-foot freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner (6.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG), who managed just two total points in the prior meetings against the Hoyas. Kalkbrenner played just 18 total minutes and struggled mightily against Georgetown's athletic front line.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Georgetown provides the perfect counterpunch to Creighton perimeter efficiency. The Hoyas should continue to find success on the interior, and already beat the Bluejays as a 14-point underdog in Omaha.

The Hoyas are playing their fourth game in four nights, but the "tired legs" narrative is often overrated. Playing for a Big East Championship will provide all the impetus the Hoyas will need to battle for the Big East Championship.

The Bluejays have played 11 games away from Omaha, and only won by nine points or more in two of those games. They have also shown a propensity to blow big second-half leads on the road, such as against Butler (14 points) and Providence (13 points).

This is simply too many points to lay with a Georgetown team that has superb balance with Blair and the Hoyas' multitude of bigs.

I'm backing the Hoyas with the 8.5 points, and would advise waiting until closer to tip-off to place your bet. Per the Action Network App, 56% of the bets are on Creighton at the time of publication, making Georgetown +9 a reasonable possibility.

Pick: Georgetown +8.5