Illinois vs Missouri Odds, Pick

The Missouri Tigers and Illinois Fighting Illini meet on Friday night in Saint Louis.

Illinois ranks 13th, per KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric. The Fighting Illini have the third-best Effective Field Goal Percentage on defense in the country because they are holding opponents to just 40.4% from inside the perimeter and 29.2% from deep. In addition, Illinois restricts the opposition’s ability to find 3s, holding them to the 17th-lowest 3-point attempt rate in the country. Mizzou ranks 34th in 3-point attempt rate offensively and shoots over 36% from 3. Illinois should hold them in check as the Illini are limiting opponents to the 48th-ranked Open 3 Rate in the country.

When Mizzou gets inside the arc, its offense ranks 86th in Rim and 3 Rate, which is solid. However, the Illini rank second defensively in Rim and 3 Rate, so Missouri shouldn't get many open looks.

(Photo by CBB Analytics)

The Illini thrive on the glass, ranking 45th offensively and 44th defensively. Missouri ranks 241st offensively and 317th defensively, which means Illinois may get plenty of second-chance opportunities.

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Missouri ranks 116th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (KenPom), but holds opponents to 18 seconds per possession and maintains the 249th-ranked Adjusted Tempo in the country.

Missouri’s defense is a weakness as the Tigers rank 272nd in Open 3 Rate and 165th in Rim and 3 Rate on defense (Shot Quality). On the other hand, besides Justin Harmon, Luke Goode and Terrance Shannon, Jr., no one is shooting above 35% from 3 for the Illini.

Turnovers and transition baskets could be an issue for under bettors in this game. Mizzou ranks 44th in defensive turnover rate and 119th on offense. Illinois ranks 186th on offense, but 341st on defense. Essentially, the Tigers will force turnovers and get out in transition. Illinois may not.

Still, Illinois has a phenomenal defense and some issues on offense. The Illini should limit the Tigers' 3s and the Tigers should slow the pace of this game. Turnovers could be a problem for both teams, and rebounds could be an issue for Mizzou, but neither team is sharp enough on offense to push this game over the total. Take the under to 148 (-110).

Pick: Under 150.5 (-110) Play to 148 (-110)

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