The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Purdue is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my Illinois vs. Purdue prediction and college basketball picks for January 24, 2026.
Illinois vs Purdue Prediction
My Pick: Over 150.5
My Illinois vs Purdue best bet is on the Over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs. Purdue Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- Illinois vs Purdue spread: Purdue -4.5
- Illinois vs Purdue over/under: 150.5
- Illinois vs Purdue moneyline: Illinois +165, Purdue -200
Illinois vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois Basketball
Illinois is on a tear.
The Illini have ripped off eight straight wins, including impressive road victories at Iowa and Northwestern (a former house of horrors), and they look every bit like a team peaking as conference play grinds on.
This run has been fueled by an elite offense that risen above the rest. Illinois currently ranks No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom, operating with ruthless precision and pristine spacing.
Brad Underwood’s flexibility has shone through this year. Conversely to prior seasons, Illinois plays at a crawl in the half-court, ranking 17th out of 18 Big Ten teams in offensive average possession length.
The spacing is immaculate because every piece of Illinois’ frontcourt can shoot. Their 4s and 5s stretch defenses well beyond the arc, pulling rim protection out of position and opening driving lanes for guards and wings. Help defense becomes a losing proposition.
Specifically, that frontcourt shooting opens up the court for Keaton Wagler and Andrej Stojakovic.
Stojakovic just detonated for 30 points and nine rebounds on 9-for-18 shooting against an overmatched Maryland defense, showcasing the kind of takeover ability that elevates Illinois from “conference contender” to a real national threat come March.
With elite spacing, patience, and shot-making across the board, the Illini are in the mix with Purdue and the Michigan schools atop the Big Ten.
Defensively, Illinois has chosen calculation over chaos.
The Illini run an extremely conservative scheme, ranking 365th nationally in turnover rate while leading the nation in free-throw rate allowed. They don’t gamble, they don’t press, and they’re content to force opponents to beat them with tough, contested shots over a full possession.
That approach does carry risk, especially without Kylan Boswell out due to injury. His on-ball defense and ability to erase lead ball-handlers will be sorely missed against premier foes.
Purdue Basketball
Purdue enters this spot at a bit of an inflection point.
The Boilermakers are coming off a loss to the UCLA Bruins men's basketball on the West Coast and now have to flip the page quickly while traveling back home. That has not been an easy turnaround for Big Ten teams, especially for those that lean heavily on precision and rhythm — last year, Purdue lost at home to Ohio State after going to the Pacific Northwest.
The biggest storyline is the recent slippage from Purdue’s secondary stars.
Trey Kaufman-Renn has been floating along somewhat lackadaisically, averaging just 9.8 points and 6.6 rebounds while shooting 41.7% over his past five games, well below his standards. Fletcher Loyer has not been much better, hitting only 6-for-24 (25%) from beyond the arc over that same stretch.
Purdue’s offense is built to hum when both attack and score confidently. The Boilers need both to get right here against an imposing foe.
The constant, as always, is Braden Smith.
He was not at his sharpest at UCLA, but Smith remains the engine. He ranks in the 98th percentile nationally in frequency of “pick-and-roll + passes” and the 76th percentile in efficiency, per Synergy, giving Purdue elite control over tempo and shot quality.
When Smith is dictating, Purdue can be a destroyer.
Defensively, though, cracks are starting to show. The Boilermakers are allowing opponents to shoot 56.8% from the field on 2-point attempts in Big Ten play, ranking 15th of 18 teams.
Guards and wings have struggled to stay in front of opposing drives, and while Oscar Cluff provides size, he hasn’t been a true eraser —opponents are shooting 67.5% at the rim when he’s on the floor, per Hoop Explorer (that’s bad).
Purdue still has the structure and star power to be dominant, but with defensive leakage and key scorers slumping, this stretch will reveal just how high the Boilermakers’ margin for error really is.
Illinois vs. Purdue Betting Analysis
This matchup has produced fireworks in recent history.
Purdue has won five of the past six meetings, and five of those six have cleared the total, a trend driven less by pace and more by how cleanly these offenses attack each other’s structural weaknesses.
Both schemes are built to stress defensive rules, and the personnel matchup matters here. Last season, Smith and Kaufman-Renn carved Illinois up, combining for 47 points, 16 rebounds and 12 assists.
Smith’s ability to live in ball screens becomes even more dangerous without Boswell, Illinois’ best on-ball stopper. Without him, Smith should be playing in a sandbox: probing, forcing help and spraying the ball to shooters or dump-offs all game.
On the other end, Illinois’ spread offense presents just as many issues for Purdue. The Illini consistently got to the rim last year, shooting 17-for-27 from inside the arc and getting to the charity stripe 25 times.
That pressure hasn’t gone away, particularly with the Illini’s floor-stretching frontcourt. Stojakovic adds another layer that Purdue will struggle to contain, especially given the Boilers’ lack of true wing-sized defenders. Stojakovic's player props would be interesting here.
Yes, both teams can play deliberately, which is a concern for the Over.
But I’m still taking the Over because of the expected high efficiency from both offenses. With elite creators, spacing everywhere, and clear paths to points on both sides, the efficiency ceiling is extremely high.
My Pick: Over 150.5 (-110, bet365)
